Change Madness 2014-
Ronald E. Hughes-Meteorologist/Physical Oceanographer since 1961
1. In his State of the Union speech, President Obama declared,
"...the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact."
On February 14, 2014, President Obama spoke to a select audience in a farmer's field near Los Banos, California (normally bone dry). Ostensibly the president flew all the way to California to distribute Washington largesse to victims of the California drought. In fact, his real purpose was to agonize about climate change that caused the drought. He said:
"A changing climate means that weather-related disasters like droughts, wildfires, storms, floods are potentially going to be costlier and they're going to be harsher."
"Frankly [climate change] has to affect all of our decisions because the science is irrefutable. We are already seeing severe weather patterns increase."
Two days later, Secretary of State John Kerry ranted incessantly to a captive audience of Indonesian college students about how climate change was destroying Earth and how climate change deniers were at fault. He said:
"Climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world's most fearsome weapon of mass destruction."
"97 percent of climate scientists have confirmed that climate change is happening and that human activity is responsible."
"We should not allow a tiny minority of shoddy scientists and extreme ideologues to compete with scientific facts."
President Obama and Secretary Kerry have no scientific credentials to make these false claims. Their scientific sources are government employees and scientists who rely on government grants to survive. The 97 percent of climate scientists that claim human activity is responsible for climate change is a gross exaggeration. The scientific literature is replete with research that shows anthropogenic climate change is not confirmed. Those scientists who insist "the debate is settled" are in the minority and have a vested interest in climate change. It is their bread and butter.
In a letter to the Oversight committee of the U.S. Senate's Committee on Environment and Public Works, President Obama's science adviser, John Holdren revealed that on February 13, 2014, the day before the President's Los Banos speech, he told reporters that recent severe droughts in the American West were linked to global climate change. Holdren explained, "In my recent comments about observed and projected increases in drought in the American West, I mentioned four relatively well understood mechanisms by which climate change can play a role in drought.
The four mechanisms are:
1. In a warming world, a larger fraction of total precipitation falls in downpours, which means a
larger fraction is lost to storm runoff (as opposed to being absorbed in soil).
2. In mountain regions that are warming, as most are, a larger fraction of precipitation falls as
rain rather than as snow, which means lower stream flows in spring and summer.
3. What snowpack there is melts earlier in a warming world, further reducing flows later in the
4. Where temperatures are higher, losses of water from soil and reservoirs due to evaporation
are likewise higher than they would otherwise be."
Holdren's "warming world" derives from speculation that long wave radiation heating from carbon dioxide, due to man's use of fossil fuels, has caused Earth's average surface temperature to warm 1.4 degrees F. since the Industrial Revolution. There has been no surface warming in 15-years. Holdren's warming world is insufficient to power his four mechanisms.
More important Holdren's four mechanisms are ineffectual. Droughts are caused by upper level circulation features, not surface warming. Upper level heat domes (ridges or Highs) are responsible for drought by causing top-down heat waves and by blocking storm tracks from entering the drought region. Heat waves result from sinking air being compressed and warmed from high altitudes all the way to the surface. Convective instability and clouds are suppressed. This allows the sun to further heat the surface. Storm tracks are sent elsewhere. No precipitation falls. Drought results from these top down mechanisms, not from Holdren's anthropogenic surface warming mechanisms.
For example, a semi-permanent heat dome over the West Coast and Southwest is responsible for the three-year California and southwest drought. On the day that John Holdren addressed the reporters, this heat dome was in evidence:
February 13, 1930 UTC-Infrared imagery shows a heat dome extending from
Hawaii through Texas under converging
winds south of the polar front jet stream.
Sinking air is evident from the absence of convective clouds. High temperatures are in the 70's and 80's in
Southern California and Arizona.
The upstream cause of this heat dome is a cold air outbreak pushed out of Siberia by a powerful cold-core cyclone over Alaska, creating a massive pool of cold air extending all the way to the Tropics over the Dateline. Cold air over warmer water causes convective instability and shows up in this image as a dense mat of cumulus clouds. This cold air pool over the Mid-Pacific Ocean is responsible for the polar front jet stream that creates the heat dome with warm temperatures and dry air over California and the Southwest.
On the other hand temperatures are below zero in the northern Plains
and below 20-degrees from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Climate scientists conclude, by averaging
record cold temperatures in the east with warm temperatures in the west that
world warming continues unabated. Of
course such an average eliminates extreme weather events such as heat waves and
drought in the west and ice, snow and floods in the east. But climate scientists move deftly from
climate (average weather) to extreme weather events in order to sell their anthropogenic
warming world junk science.
February 13, 1800 UTC-Cloud motion winds show the polar front jet stream over the maximum midlevel frontal temperature contrast. This is because thermal winds, over the maximum thickness (temperature in a vertical column) contrast, reinforce jet stream wind speeds.
The heat dome west of Southern California (no convection, few clouds, few cloud motion winds) is supporting the temperature contrast across the front even though cold winds parallel the front at all levels. For this reason, jet stream winds remain strong into Oregon and Northern California where divergence brings moderate rainfall. Further south, jet stream winds slow and turn clockwise south of the maximum temperature contrast. This results in high altitude convergence causing air to sink, warm, dry and increase pressure at the surface. The jet stream continues into Texas, warming upper levels and suppressing convection over the Southwest.
These high altitude processes initiated by a cold air outbreak from Siberia, overwhelm any anthropogenic drought causing mechanisms. In fact most extreme weather events are generated and controlled by cold air and high altitude circulation features. Extreme weather events require deep vertical winds, upward for storms and floods; downward for heat waves and drought (see satellite imagery). Manmade global warming cannot generate deep vertical winds. At best, the 1.4 degree F. increase in surface temperature since the Industrial Revolution might contribute some fair-weather cumulus clouds to the atmosphere. Extreme weather events have not become more frequent or intense this century and there is no reason to believe that will change in the future.
In his letter to the Subcommittee, Holdren cited seven peer-reviewed research papers that validated his anthropogenic warming drought mechanisms. These articles reveal that climate science does not understand the atmospheric dynamics at upper levels that cause drought. Climate change science is obsessed with phony anthropogenic surface warming mechanisms to explain drought and other extreme weather events.
For example, super storm Sandy's westerly track into New Jersey was influenced by a blocking ridge over Greenland. A peer reviewed climate science article blamed the blocking ridge on a reduction of sea ice in the Arctic. This turns the atmosphere upside-down. Blocking ridges are formed by the action of cold-core cyclones on the polar front. (Satellite imagery demonstration follows).
Also peer-reviewed climate science research papers blame the West Coast ridge on a sea surface temperature (SST) hot spot offshore of the West Coast. This turns the atmosphere inside-out. The SST hot spot results from a succession of upper atmosphere ridges (Satellite imagery demonstration follows).
It is this warming world, junk science that is responsible for the mad stampede of politicians to scare the public into accepting energy taxes that will be squandered on wealth distribution into cronies pockets.
2. Climate Change Propaganda to Dupe the U.S. Supreme Court-
Why did President Obama and Secretary Kerry make back to back speeches with the same message that climate change is a weapon of mass destruction devastating Earth with extreme weather events and any scientist who says otherwise is shoddy? This incredibly arrogant propaganda comes from two extreme ideologues who know nothing about science. No scientist would demand that other scientists believe his hypothesis without question. Yet these politicians are urging someone to believe only them. Who were these climate change alarmists trying to impress with their fear mongering rants? Certainly not a few California farmers, or Indonesian college students?
A clue to this question came later in an Al Gore Climate Reality Project blog:
"Today, power plants have limits on emissions of mercury, sulfur, arsenic, cyanide, soot, and lead, but there are no federal limits on carbon pollution that is responsible for climate change. This must end, and (EPA) limits on carbon pollution from new power plants are an important first step."
On Monday night March 10, 2014 a couple dozen Senate Democrats spent all night speaking in the Senate Chamber. They were not arguing for specific legislation. They were not there to filibuster against any bill. They were there until 9 AM Tuesday morning railing against climate change and castigating those who don't believe that human caused carbon pollution is responsible for climate change.
Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that "we are on the cusp of a climate crisis, a point of no return that will threaten our health, our economy and our planet."
Senator Harry Reid said, "A large majority of Americans believe climate change is real. But despite overwhelming scientific evidence and overwhelming public opinion, climate change deniers still exist."
Both statements are fear mongering nonsense. The media characterized this event as "Hot air about hot air" and "the speeches were little more than theatrics." Republicans laughed at it. Republicans laugh at the country's peril. That President Obama, Secretary Kerry, Al Gore and the Senate Democrats chose to present fear mongering propaganda speeches about climate change at almost the same time suggests an ulterior motive. None of these Democrats have any knowledge of atmospheric science. Yet they insist that Americans are responsible for a climate crisis and anyone who disagrees is a despicable denier. What is the purpose of this blatant propaganda?
Fundraising is the obvious answer. It is amazing how many do-gooder billionaires, college professors and students have been brainwashed by the climate change cult. But even more important, the Democrats motive became evident on Monday February 24, 2014 when the US Supreme Court held hearings on whether the EPA exceeded its authority when it sought to use the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. A 5 to 4 decision is expected with Justice Anthony Kennedy expected to cast the swing vote. President Obama, Secretary Kerry, Al Gore and the Senate Democrats are obviously trying to sway Justice Kennedy's vote. Their fear mongering speeches were intended to intimidate Justice Anthony Kennedy into accepting the false premise that American carbon pollution is responsible for climate change. The president is counting on the Supreme Court to allow him to control carbon dioxide emissions from large stationary power plants and industrial plants. His goal is to shut down all coal-fired power plants. This will further cripple the weak economy, slow job growth and emasculate the armed forces. But he will be long gone and blameless when it happens.
3. Climate Change Madness-
In 2008, Senator Obama said, "My plan will necessarily cause the price of electricity to skyrocket." His plan included cap and trade that would have placed a price on carbon. This was madness. The Congress refused to pass this insane bill. Now the president is making an end run to throttle CO2 emissions from power plants and industrial plants. He intends to use EPA for this mission if he can convince Justice Kennedy to find for the EPA. The president plans to shut down all coal powered power plants. Coal, the cheapest form of energy, provides 40% of the country's electricity. The President has chosen natural gas to replace this lost energy. What happens when the price of natural gas skyrockets as the U.S tries to supply Western Europe? Will China and India go along with U.S. madness? That's a laugh.
Climate change madness is crippling the US economy. In his State of the Union speech the president boasted that his all-of-the-above energy policy has brought America closer to energy independence. He noted that oil and natural gas production are booming. He then proposed a "tax policy that stops giving $4 billion a year to fossil fuel industries that don't need it,.." Who does he think is responsible for our progress toward energy independence? His huge investments in solar and wind power can never compete economically with fossil fuels.
The president has sent $1 billion to the UN to mitigate the effects of climate change on third-world countries. The International Energy Agency has suggested it may cost $1 trillion from wealthy countries over 25 years just for adaptation. This is madness. This money will find its way into the pockets of UN functionaries and bureaucrats.
The president will ask Congress to budget $1 billion to battle climate-related weather patterns. This is madness. Who will decide what weather patterns are acceptable and which should be terminated? Geoengineering to battle weather patterns is truly a most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.
The president stressed recently that he is concerned that building the XL pipeline from Canada to the US Gulf Coast, would hasten climate change. This is madness. Canada is a close friend. Canadian oil contributes to American energy independence. The State Department has determined that XL pipeline will have little, if any, influence on climate change.
The president demanded that the auto industry reduce average automobile gasoline consumption to 54.5 mpg. Now he insists that trucks be downsized by draconian fuel efficiency standards. This is madness. Well after the president leaves the Oval Office, Americans are going to be driving ready-made coffins.
4. Climate Change Exposed-
President Obama said:
"We are already seeing severe weather patterns increase."
Secretary Kerry said:
"...climate change is happening and human activity is responsible."
Al Gore said:
"From a drought that covered 60 percent of our nation to a super storm that caused over $65 billion in damages; from wildfires spreading across the West to severe flooding in cities all across our country, we've seen how extreme weather events are made worse when we fail to act."
"The last five years was the warmest five-year stretch ever recorded in Texas, and the state's agriculture, lakes, and water supplies are still feeling the effects. Historic drought is drying up the West Coast, threatening the farms that feed us all. Extreme weather events like the biblical floods that struck Colorado last fall are expected to occur more and more frequently."
Al Gore has been making these silly claims that extreme weather events are made worse by anthropogenic global warming for many years. When will the present generation of climate scientists let him know that he is making them look foolish? When will they inform him that extreme weather events are generated and controlled by upper atmosphere circulation features; not by surface warming due to AGW (This is demonstrated with satellite imagery throughout this website and in www.climatechangescam.com).
Al Gore's extreme weather events had nothing to do with our failure to act. The drought that covered 60 percent of our nation and the Texas drought were caused by upper level heat domes. These droughts are a distant memory. Winter storm Titan just delivered up to a foot of rain in California. Wildfires are not spreading across the West. Super storm Sandy and the floods that struck Colorado were caused by strongly diverging high altitude winds.
There is no evidence that severe weather has increased over the past century. Al's reference to biblical floods draws a contrast with his fear mongering over yesterday's severe weather. In fact, the term "of biblical proportions" applies to heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms and floods that go back to antiquity. The "Great Snow of 1717" and the "Great Blizzard of 1888" have not yet been surpassed in intensity. The Indianola hurricane of 1886 was the fifth most powerful hurricane making U.S. landfall. Evidence of more extensive heat waves, droughts and wildfires shows up in ancient geological records.
Climate science, instead of correcting Al Gore, has spread his junk science falsehoods throughout the Democrat political ranks. Secretary Kerry's false claim that "climate change is happening and human activity is responsible" has no scientific basis. Most of the 1.4 degree F. increase in Earth's estimated average surface temperature (SST) shows up as a 1.0 F. increase in SST between 1978 and 1998. For the past 15-years fossil fuels have emitted nearly 600 GtCO2 into the atmosphere with no average surface temperature increase. The period between 1978 and today does not correlate with the steady geometric increase in CO2 measured on Maunaloa volcano in Hawaii.
My experience includes analyzing SST by hand and by computer from 1961 through 1979. Most areas of all oceans were data voids. The only temperature observations were obtained from commercial ships sailing along standard shipping lanes and occasional fishing vessels, research or military ships. Shipping lanes migrated with the weather. As a result almost no temperature measurements were made north of the subtropics in winter. Commercial ships measured water temperature from sea water intakes that averaged 15-feet below the waterline. Standard corrections were made for depth and intake temperature. Needless to say, SST analyses were rough estimates at best. Since that time, satellites and buoy networks have supplanted ship measurements of SST. My guess is that the rapid increase in SST, from 1978 when satellites began measuring SST until 1998 when SST stabilized, was an artifact of the conversion from conventional SST measurements to satellite and buoy observations.
The five El Nino years during this twenty year period might have combined with temperature departure analysis models to build an outlier temperature increase peaking in 1998. One or both of these artifacts might account for the claim that every year, in the 21st century, is among the warmest during the past 600,000 years. That is fear mongering nonsense. Geological evidence finds surface temperature 4-degrees F. higher and sea levels 30-feet higher than today, during the last interglacial warm period.
A similar rapid increase in average SST from 1910 to 1940 was likely also an artifact of data measurement or model assumptions. Natural variability of that magnitude cannot be adequately explained. CO2 measurements do not correlate with such deviations.
CO2 measurements at the Maunaloa volcano observatory on Hawaii Island began in 1958, the year that the first commercial jet airplane landed in the Islands. Since then two international airports have bracketed the Maunaloa observation site within thirty miles. Kilauea volcano began erupting continuously in 1983. During the cool season, winter fronts and storms lift the temperature inversion protecting the site from volcanic gases and industrial activity. It's anybody's guess what is actually being measured on Maunaloa. Whatever is measured does not correlate with the accepted global average SST change.
5. Genesis of a Blocking High
Climate scientists, eager to blame unusual weather on climate change, hypothesize that blocking highs are caused by a reduction in Arctic sea ice and surface warming that influences the jet stream to slow and flow meridionally. This is junk science. The following sequence of satellite images and cloud motion winds (FACTS) demonstrate how blocking highs really form.
Cold-core cyclones with storm force winds from the surface to high altitudes control development of blocking highs. In turn, cold-core cyclones are generated by high altitude cold pockets or short wave troughs. Meteorologists refer to these circulation features as Positive Vorticity (cyclonic spin) Advection (winds blowing through) maxima (maximum upward vertical motion) or (PVA max). Diverging winds downstream of a PVA max result in strong upward vertical motions, falling surface pressure and cyclones forming at the surface. Converging winds upstream of a PVA max support cold outbreaks and strong surface winds.
March 27, 1932 UTC-A PVA max, with a rounded cloud shield, in Chongoing Province, China will become the base of a blocking high (bBH) over the U.S. West Coast in ten days.
March 30, 1932 UTC-Three days later bBH has become an intense cold-core cyclone by extracting energy (sensible heat and water vapor) from the warm Kuroshio Current east of Japan. Storm force winds compact cold and warm air masses to form a segment of the polar front extending southeast to Taiwan.
April 02, 1630 UTC-The comma shaped PVA max east of Mongolia is plunging toward an Arctic front. This combination will explode into a powerful storm over the Kuroshio Current. This storm and its' cold front will become the top of the blocking high over Alaska (tBH). It will result in a cold air outbreak over the U.S. that dumps snow on the Midwest and New England and spawns storms along the Gulf Coast.
bBH is weakening and its frontal segment is becoming ragged as it approaches the date line.
April 04, 2332 UTC-Two days later, tBH has stalled over the Sea of Okhotsk while its polar front continues to move east in strong westerly winds.
bBH moved into Eastpac.
April 5, 2332 UTC-The tBH cyclone is dissipating over the Sea of Okhotsk. Its' front is falling apart as it moves over the date line. A comma shaped PVA max east of Honshu, Japan is coming to the rescue.
April 06, 1932 UTC-The PVA max is replacing the original cyclone with a much stronger cold-core cyclone south of Kamchatka. The tBH front has been reinvigorated with heat domes to the north and south (suppressed convection). These heat domes are the building blocks of the blocking high to be constructed over Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.
April 05, 0030 UTC-Meanwhile, two days earlier, in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the bBH cyclone is in the Bering Sea pumping cold Siberian air into a cold outbreak behind its' polar front segment that is approaching the U.S. Pacific Northwest. The frontal temperature contrast is strong between the cold air outbreak and sinking, warming air (little convection) to the southeast.
tBH's reinvigorated polar front segment is approaching the date line.
April 5, 0000 UTC-A thermal wind jet stream, resulting from the low level temperature contrast in the bBH polar front segment, veers from southwest over Hawaii to northwest approaching the U.S. West Coast. Converging upper level winds have built a large heat dome (anticyclone) south of the jet stream. This heat dome will be the base of the blocking high to be formed by bBH's front and jet stream.
April 06, 0000 UTC-A PVA max in the cold air is beginning to pull bBH's polar front segment and its' heat dome northwest while reinvigorating the temperature contrast across its' front.
April 06, 2000 UTC-Cyclogenesis occurred twice, pulling bHB's polar front segment into an almost south-north orientation. The heat dome moved north too. High temperatures in Southern California, Nevada and Arizona are in the 80's.
Reenergized by the PVA max, tBH is approaching the date line with a small heat dome northeast of its' polar front segment approaching the Aleutian Islands. This will eventually become the top of the blocking high over Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.
April 07, 0000 UTC-Thermal winds have accelerated the jet stream northward over bBH's frontal temperature gradient. This moves the heat dome over the West Coast northward.
The heat dome south of the tBH front is approaching Hawaii.
April 07, 0700 UTC-The new cold-core cyclone has pulled bBH's front into a south-north orientation. bBH's West Coast heat dome has moved north to British Columbia.
tBH's heat domes are over the western Aleutian Islands and over the date line.
April 08, 0300 UTC-The bBH front is being overrun by the tBH front that is approaching Hawaii. As a result the upper level trough between the two fronts has deepened northeast of Hawaii. Diverging winds (spreading and accelerating) are evident in advance of this large PVA max.
April 08, 0530 UTC-A PVA max water vapor cloud shield displays evidence of cyclogenesis (diverging winds and upward vertical motion) west of bBH's polar front segment that extends from Hawaii to British Columbia.
April 08, 2030 UTC-Cyclogenesis occurred over the sea surface temperature hotspot. The bBH front was pulled back into the new cyclone. The bBH heat dome remains east of the new cyclone and extends over the Southwest. Temperature in Arizona has increased into the high 90's from the 70's three days ago.
Approaching the Aleutian Islands tBH is weakening and its cold front segment is falling apart. A heat dome extends from north of Hawaii into Alaska.
April 10, 0030 UTC-The tBH polar front segment moving into Washington State is ragged due to opposing winds from the bBH cold-core cyclone. A PVA max is approaching the ragged front from the west.
The northern heat dome has been cut off in the Gulf of Alaska.
April 10, 0000 UTC-Converging high altitude winds between the cold-core cyclone on bBH's front and tBH's frontal system winds are building a heat dome from west of Hawaii to the West coast. This is lifting the tBH polar front north and will eventually weaken the bBH cold core cyclone.
April 11, 1900 UTC-The PVA max became a cold-core cyclone that pulled the tBH front back to the Aleutian Islands and into a southeast-northwest orientation.
East of the front, sinking, warming winds due to converging upper winds suppressed convection causing the cold-core cyclone to almost dissipate and surface temperature to peak over 100 degrees F. in the Southwest. Surface temperature highs were in the 70's five days ago. This surface temperature spike is typical of a heat dome overhead. Heat waves and droughts are caused by these upper atmosphere heat domes, not manmade global warming.
April 11, 1800 UTC- The tBH polar front temperature contrast forces a thermal wind jet stream to bend back to the northwest over the Aleutian Islands. Like a slingshot, this forces warm upper winds into a blocking high over Alaska.
Offshore of California, remnant cold-core cyclone clouds are being evaporated by the heat dome extending into the West Coast.
April 12, 0300 UTC-National Weather Service, Anchorage, Alaska 24-hour jet stream prediction at 30,000 ft, verifying April 12, shows the blocking high extending north to the Arctic Ocean. As a result a cold air outbreak from the polar vortex is beginning to move south into Canada.
April 13, 0230-One day later the tBH polar front segment is oriented south-north into Alaska. A new cyclone and polar front segment enter Eastpac.
April 13, 0300 UTC-The thermal wind jet stream over the date line has moved north over the oncoming frontal temperature contrast. As it outruns the new front's temperature contrast it turns south until it intercepts tBH's frontal temperature contrast over Hawaii where it scoops up warmer air and is abruptly catapulted north into Alaska by tBH's thermal wind. This extends the blocking high further north over Alaska and the Arctic Ocean.
April 13, 0300 UTC- National Weather Service, Anchorage, Alaska 24-hour 30,000 ft. jet stream prediction for April 13, 2014 projects the blocking ridge to extend over the Arctic Ocean pulling even colder air south to the U.S.
Barrow, Alaska on the Arctic Ocean shoreline recorded a sharp increase in surface temperature beginning on April 13, 2014 and extending to April 17, 2014. The high of 28 degrees F. and low of 19 degrees F. occurred on April 15, 2014. These high and low temperatures are 20 degrees higher than normal for the date.
Climate change proponents can see that the jet stream has not been weakened by Arctic warmth due to an alleged sea ice reduction. Instead this heat dome warms the Arctic sea ice. Arctic sea ice extent depends on frequency of heat dome and storm passage more than AGW.
If the Arctic Ocean were unusually warm due to lesser sea ice extent this heat dome would suppress convective instability like it did with the cold-core cyclone offshore of California.
6. Evolution of winter storm Titan-
AGW warms Earth's surface. It has little influence on atmospheric circulation dynamics. Mid-latitude extreme weather is generated and controlled by very cold, high altitude circulation features. This will be demonstrated for winter storm Titan that dumped nearly a foot of rain on Southern California and one to two feet of snow from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Titan qualifies as an extreme weather event and also as a welcome anomaly that helped to alleviate California's extreme drought. Titan's evolution suggests intelligent control; not something that humans should try to master.
Anthropogenic global warming is credited with increasing energy and moisture near the surface resulting in more severe storms and floods. The increase in energy and moisture from a 1.4 degree F. average surface temperature increase since 1880 is insignificant in storm formation. Strong vertical motions determine the intensity of storm winds and precipitation. PVA maxima will be seen as the original source of this deep convection for mid-latitude storms.
Upper atmosphere circulation features generate and control extreme weather events in mid-latitudes. Average global surface temperature and its moisture increase have little influence. Formation and evolution of winter storm Titan will demonstrate the process.
February 22, 1832 UTC-Infrared imagery over the western Pacific Ocean reveals a mature cloud shield, with trailing cold front, from a PVA-max passing the Dateline moving east. The comma shaped cloud shield approaching the Dateline is newly formed in advance of a PVA max.
These two circulation features will act together to promote development of winter storm Titan, which, in six days will dump nearly a foot of rain on Southern California and snow in the mountains then proceed across the Rockies and dump up to a foot of snow from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
February 23, 0200-Multi-channel infrared imagery over the Mid-Pacific reveals the cyclone with trailing front segment, north of the Hawaiian Islands moving east. The trailing PVA max is beginning to blossom as it passes the Dateline.
Cold air over warm water is evidenced by convective instability forming a dense mat of cumulus clouds. As a PVA max passes over these clouds its' diverging winds create strong upward vertical motions that enhance convection and form high altitude cloud shields.
February 23, 2030 UTC-The two PVA maxima begin to intensify into cold-core cyclones.
February 23, 1800 UTC- Cloud motion winds reveal that the two cold-core cyclones are so weak they barely show up in the wind flow. One is located north of the Hawaiian Islands, the other is near the west tip of the Aleutian Islands.
Zonal winds between the cyclones suggest a weak temperature contrast with the ocean surface and weak convective instability. This accounts for the slow intensification of these two cyclones.
A persistent ridge offshore of the Pacific Northwest, with a heat dome approaching Southern California, continues the drought by preventing the polar front jet stream from moving into California.
February 24, 1900 UTC- Titan makes its debut as a comma-shaped cloud shield south of the Aleutian Islands near the Dateline. There was no indication of this PVA-Max in the wind or temperature fields eighteen-hours ago. This is one reason that weather cannot be forecast beyond a few days and climate cannot be accurately predicted.
The cold-core cyclone over Adak, Alaska has been pumping cold air south into the circulation of the cold-core cyclone south of Kodiak, Alaska. This tandem operation has pushed cold air almost to Hawaii.
A heat dome with sinking air, being compressed and heated all the way to the surface, has made California and the Southwest mostly cloud free, hot and dry. This semi-permanent heat dome, responsible for the three-year California and Southwest drought, steers storms into the Pacific Northwest and Canada. Without a major circulation change, Titan has little chance of getting through to California.
February 24, 1800 UTC-The two cold-core cyclones are now positioned perfectly to pump cold air all the way from Siberia southeast to the subtropics. The easternmost cyclone is intensifying due to an increase in air-ocean temperature contrast and convective instability.
The long wave trough along 145-degrees west longitude pumps warm air at all levels into a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The ridge is being eroded by diverging upper level winds, in advance of the eastern cyclone, causing upward vertical motion, surface pressure falls and precipitating frontal clouds (see previous panel). A heat dome forms offshore of Southern California.
February 25, 0200 UTC-The cyclone over the Aleutians has completed its job pushing cold air south and with Titan's approach it fades away.
March 04, 1800 UTC-An SST hot spot offshore of the West Coast, formed by a steady succession of upper atmosphere heat domes, persists after Titan passes over the area. This hot spot activates convective instability when cold air passes overhead. Upwelling along the coast keeps SST cool and surface air dry.
February 26, 0030 UTC-Cold air pouring out of Siberia has distorted the front segments extending from the eastern cyclone and from the Titan PVA max. Strong convection over the SST hot spot contributes to cyclogenesis offshore of Central California.
February 26, 1800 UTC-The PVA max is onshore in Northern California. Diverging winds and upward vertical motion result in rain and snow over Southern California. Cold air no longer flows behind the front resulting in weakened convection.
February 27, 0000 UTC- The easternmost cyclone is in the Bering Sea pumping cold air behind Titan. A new more powerful storm is gaining on Titan.
Cold air is being pinched off by a heat dome in advance of Titan's cold front. Also SST is cooler along the coast. Moisture has been reduced. As a result rainfall from this storm will be limited to 1" to 3".
February 28, 0130 UTC-Unlike the previous weak storm, extensive cold air advection over the SST hot spot causes strong convection in the cyclonic flow, which supports falling pressure and intensification of Titan. The next storm remains strong.
February 28, 0600 UTC-Titan becomes a cold-core meteorological bomb. Super storm Sandy was this type of storm.
February 28, 1800 UTC-Titan is an intense cold-core cyclone. Diverging upper level winds result in heavy rain falling over Southern California. Storm force winds are generating high waves and long period swell aimed at Southern California beaches. Fortunately, most structures are well above the incoming surf. However, a seaside restaurant in Santa Barbara loses its windows to high surf.
February 28, 1830 UTC-While Titan spins offshore, the next storm is bearing down ominously on the same Southern California coast. With the ground saturated by Titan, this next storm is likely to cause deadly flooding and mudslides but the National Weather Service does not issue warnings for this monster storm. NWS models must know something that is not obvious from the satellite image.
March 02, 0030 UTC-The next storm is being overrun by an upper level heat dome (ridge). As a result it is weakening rapidly.
March 2, 0000 UTC-The cold-core cyclone north of Hawaii is reinforcing the polar front with cold air from Siberia and the Gulf of Alaska. Thermal winds over the temperature contrast accelerate the jet stream northwest to form a heat dome over the oncoming front and SST hot spot.
March 2, 2030 UTC-The next storm collapses leaving only a ragged convective cloud shield over the SST hot spot. The SST hot spot was no match for a high altitude heat dome (ridge). For the same reason, anthropogenic surface warming is insignificant as a mechanism to increase frequency, intensity and duration of droughts.
California would have seen serious flooding had this storm remained powerful. No doubt, alarmists would have blamed AGW.
March 3, 0445 UTC-Titan's high altitude center over Oklahoma is rendezvousing with a strong cold air outbreak. 70-degree temperatures in the Gulf Coast states are being pushed aside by 20- and 30-degree temperatures behind a strong cold front. Deep upward vertical motion resulted in Titan dumping up to a foot of snow on parts of the Great Plains, South, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
March 3, 0300 UTC- Titan's high altitude positive vorticity center moved over the Rocky Mountains and is now in Oklahoma. A thermal wind jet stream over the Midwest and Northeast together with diverging winds (spreading and accelerating), strong upward vertical motion and precipitation over Arkansas, Missouri and the Midwest are responsible for heavy precipitation. Storm force winds cause blizzards in the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic states.
March 6, 1945 UTC- The double-backed cold front that lost its temperature contrast offshore of California, due to a passing heat dome overhead, retained its high altitude cyclonic spin and is now a PVA max over entering Louisiana. Converging winds west and south of the vorticity center cause winds to sink, warm and dry resulting in a wide dry slot before diverging winds reult in strong upward vertical motion and heavy precipitation along the East Coast despite temperatures and dew points in the 40's.
March 6, 1800 UTC- Diverging upper level winds resulting in deep upward motions are responsible for heavy rainfall over the Southeast. Temperature and dewpoints remain low.
March 7, 1800-Titan adds to Great Britain's longest wet season. The persistent cold air pool or long wave trough west of Great Britain was responsible for the high winds and floods. Climate change was not a factor.
Climate Change Nonsense in 2012-2013
Abstract-Extreme weather events are not caused by anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Satellite imagery proves superstorm Sandy was not anthropogenic climate change (ACC). The summer heat wave was not ACC. The exceptional drought is not ACC. Satellite imagery suggests weather/climate is under intelligent control. Man has no influence. Geoengineering is poisoning Americans.
November 1, 2013-
I. President Obama's Climate Action Plan-
Introducing his Climate Action Plan to a select (fawning) audience at the George Washington University on June 25, 2013, President Obama said, "Now, we know that no single weather event is caused solely by climate change. Droughts and fires and floods, they go back to ancient times." This is one of the last correct statements about weather uttered by the president in this speech.
Droughts, wildfires and floods are extreme weather events that are vital for the health of all plants and animals on the planet. Heat waves cause droughts necessary to sustain wildfires. Wildfires are essential for survival of forests, grasslands and many bird and animal species. Storms bring strong winds that cull weak and diseased trees, precipitation that hydrates the land and lightning that ignites wildfires. Floods are necessary for maintenance of forests, grasslands, river beds, flood plains and aquifers. Extreme weather events must have been performing these housekeeping functions to sustain life on Earth from its beginning.
Having introduced extreme weather events as ancient, the president turns on a dime and launches into a fear mongering junk science lecture with, "But we also know that in a world that’s warmer than it used to be, all weather events are affected by a warming planet."
The president is referring to an estimate that anthropogenic (manmade) global warming (AGW), caused by emissions of carbon dioxide from man's use of fossil fuels, has increased average surface temperature by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1850. That warming pales compared to average surface temperature near 58 degrees F. and to diurnal and weather changes of a similar magnitude. A 1.4 degree warming of the planet in 163 years is not very scary. Thus, AGW was not effective as a fear mongering message for politicians bent on scamming the public. For that reason, AGW morphed into CLIMATE CHANGE. Thus a warming planet was expanded to "all weather events are affected by a warming planet." But that wasn't very scary either. On the other hand, loss of life and property damage is scary. So climate change became an increase in frequency and intensity of severe weather due to a warming planet. The most severe weather events then became the new normal of climate change.
Architects of this pivot from AGW to climate change were forced to violate their stricture against including individual weather events as climate in order to scaremonger the public. This pivot rendered climate change junk science untenable. The architects had evidently not been introduced to synoptic meteorology or atmospheric circulation dynamics. They were mistaken in assuming that extreme weather events are generated and controlled by surface temperature. There is no conclusive evidence that extreme weather events are appreciably "affected" by 1.4 degrees F. of surface warming. Indeed, mid-latitude storms, heat waves, droughts, wildfires and floods are generated and controlled by upper atmosphere circulation features, not surface warming. This will be demonstrated with satellite imagery later. Thus climate change is fundamentally junk science.
The president's disingenuous fear mongering lecture continues, "The fact that sea level in New York, in New York Harbor, are now a foot higher than a century ago -- that didn’t cause Hurricane Sandy, but it certainly contributed to the destruction that left large parts of our mightiest city dark and underwater."
The climate change community originally blamed Superstorm Sandy on AGW. More knowledgeable heads prevailed. Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall (See Section VI). It was a typical cold-core cyclone (cold from top to bottom). Remember the on-scene reporters complaining about the wind chill? Remember the heavy snowfall in West Virginia?
The president alleges that sea level "a foot higher than a century ago...," "...contributed to the destruction." He is giving credit to AGW for Sandy's devastation. This is a typical ploy to reinforce climate change as a scare tactic in order to influence government control of fossil fuels.
There is some question as to the veracity of a one-foot sea level rise due to AGW. Even if true, other air-ocean factors were more important. Sandy's unusual westerly track and cold storm-force winds over warmer waters were the primary causes for its' beachfront destruction. Cold storm-force winds over warm water generate very high wave heights. A long onshore directed fetch allowed the high waves to become long wavelength (period) swell. Bottom slope and swell period determined the location and height of primary breakers. Strong onshore winds, enhanced by Sandy's onshore direction of motion, pushed primary breaker run-up and shore-break run-up into the beachfront. A change in wind direction from easterly to southerly as Sandy came ashore caused high water piled up along the New Jersey shore to be pushed into New York. High tides amplified the run-ups.
The estimated one-foot sea level rise assumes polar ice melt and ocean warming were due to AGW. Blaming the sea level rise on a 1.4 degree F. surface temperature increase over 163-years is unrealistic. Ice melt on the Greenland ice cap and from glaciers is highly variable from one year to the next. It is more likely caused by alternating high altitude heat domes than by constant infrared radiation over ice. Ocean warming is almost completely caused by solar heating. As for future sea level rises, during the last interglacial, average surface temperature was nearly 4-degrees F. higher and sea levels were 30- feet higher than today (5th AR IPCC). Shoreline structures will eventually disappear with or without AGW.
The president reinforces his fear mongering message with, "The potential impacts go beyond rising sea levels. Here at home, 2012 was the warmest year in our history. Midwest farms were parched by the worst drought since the Dust Bowl, and then drenched by the wettest spring on record. Western wildfires scorched an area larger than the state of Maryland. Just last week, a heat wave in Alaska shot temperatures into the 90s."
President Obama blames a warming planet (AGW) for "potential impacts" that include extreme weather events of 2012 and 2013. This is a false premise.
The record heat wave in 2012 had nothing to do with AGW. AGW is surface heating. The heat wave, on the other hand, was generated by a succession of high altitude anticyclones (heat domes) forming under converging winds south of the polar front jet stream. Sinking air under the heat domes resulted in downward heating due to compression. Convection was suppressed. Clouds and water vapor evaporated leaving clear skies for direct sunlight to bake the ground. Soil moisture content was extremely low due to little snowfall during the preceding winter. This prevented evaporative cooling. Normal eastward progress of the heat domes became stalled. A record heat wave ensued in the West and Midwest. When this heat wave moved slowly east it picked up tropical surface heat and water vapor from a surface anticyclone positioned offshore. This resulted in the heat wave becoming more oppressive and extending all the way to the East Coast.
The record heat wave was caused by a succession of heat domes becoming stalled, the unusual low winter snowfall, sparse spring rains and surface winds bringing tropical air to the East Coast. This rare combination of circulation features is responsible for heat and drought records, not a 1.4 degree F. average surface temperature increase over 163 years. Heat waves in Alaska are caused by high altitude heat domes and advection from the Eastern Pacific Ocean, not AGW.
Having established the false premise that AGW is responsible for extreme weather events, the president then blames "the costs of these events" on AGW, "And we know that the costs of these events can be measured in lost lives and lost livelihoods, lost homes, lost businesses, hundreds of billions of dollars in emergency services and disaster relief." "Farmers see crops wilted one year, washed away the next; and the higher food prices get passed on to you, the American consumer. Mountain communities worry about what smaller snow packs will mean for tourism -- and then, families at the bottom of the mountains wonder what it will mean for their drinking water. Americans across the country are already paying the price of inaction in insurance premiums, state and local taxes, and the costs of rebuilding and disaster relief."
Americans are paying the price of inaction? What government inaction? There is no need for government action here. The atmosphere is behaving normally. As this is written in October 2013, the drought of 2012 is almost completely wiped out. Only 2.8% of the country contains extreme and exceptional drought, mostly in California and Nevada. Early heavy snow is now falling in the Sierras and Rockies. Crop harvests are approaching record levels. Wildfire numbers this year were near a record low. (The lame-stream media, pushing climate change, says nothing about this good weather news).
The president's blame of extreme weather events in 2012 and 2013 on "a warming planet" (fossil fuels) is fear mongering nonsense. There is no conclusive evidence that extreme weather events during 2012 and 2013 were affected by a 1.4 degree F. increase in surface warming during the past 163 years. Nor is there reason to claim that government "inaction" had any influence on the cost of damage and injuries caused by these weather events. Actually, extreme weather events in the U.S. during 2012 and 2013 were relatively tame. History is replete with much more intense weather and more severe losses in the past.
Fossil fuels are not responsible for extreme weather events that result in death and destruction. When humans build on beaches, near rivers, in flood plains, in forests and on mountainsides they are just asking for disaster to strike.
President Obama's fear mongering propaganda is intended to convince Americans that government knows better than nature how the atmosphere-ocean system should function. This is dangerous. It gives the president justification for unnecessarily crippling the nation's economy by suppressing use of fossil fuels and exacting a carbon tax. It encourages government geoengineering to make the atmosphere-ocean perform properly. This is government insanity.
The president's call to action is disingenuous. "So the question is not whether we need to act. The overwhelming judgment of science -- of chemistry and physics and millions of measurements -- has put all that to rest. Ninety-seven percent of scientists, including, by the way, some who originally disputed the data, have now put that to rest. They've acknowledged the planet is warming and human activity is contributing to it."
Ninety-seven percent of scientists, "acknowledge the planet is warming and human activity is contributing to it." These scientists should be concerned that although nearly 600 GtCO2 has been emitted into the atmosphere by fossil fuels in the past 15-years, no change in average surface temperature has been recorded over that period. Correlation does not prove cause.
How many of the 97% of scientists know anything about atmospheric circulation dynamics and synoptic meteorology? These are the disciplines that understand the upper atmosphere processes responsible for generation and control of mid-latitude extreme weather events. These disciplines lost favor for government research grants when numerical weather prediction became operational in the 1960's. In the mid-1970's numerical weather prediction, using the most powerful computers of the day began integrating the primitive equations that govern atmospheric circulation. These initial value models, still running today, predict weather accurately only for several days. That is a natural limit imposed on man's ability to predict important circulation features, cyclones, anticyclones, fronts and jet streams, that maintain the temperature balance in the atmosphere. This is because the primitive equations contain nonlinear terms that prevent analytic solutions. Some of these nonlinear terms are important in the generation and development of extreme weather events (We shall see the influence of these nonlinear terms in the satellite imagery that follows).
After this major milestone in weather prediction was achieved, universities stopped emphasizing atmospheric circulation dynamics and synoptic meteorology. These disciplines were now performed by super computers. Climate science based on greenhouse theory became the go-to discipline for government research grants. Climate prediction science supplanted meteorology. So the 97% of scientists are now schooled in greenhouse theory, statistical or global circulation models, linearized versions of the primitive equations that cannot accurately predict individual extreme weather events(AR5 IPCC). Statistical climate prediction models, based on short data records (century), are doomed to fail. The 2013 dearth of Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin is an example.
That hasn't stopped the Federal Government from pouring taxpayer money into the coffers of climate research centers in order to develop evidence that records are being broken by AGW. This has not been very fruitful. Most studies find no AGW attribution to specific extreme weather events. Those few that do use a short period of record or fail to consider relevant atmospheric circulation dynamics.
Numerical weather prediction shows little influence of surface temperature on the development of extreme weather events. Most extreme weather events take place within steep mid-level temperature gradients (fronts and jet streams), beneath upper-level convergence (heat waves) and under upper-level divergence (intense surface winds/heavy precipitation/squall lines and strong tornadoes). These circulation features are all represented by nonlinear terms in the primitive equations. Since temperature seems to be increasing more rapidly at the poles, these terms should weaken. For that reason, extreme weather events might actually become less frequent and weaker with increasing surface planet warmth.
So, the president proposes to spend massive amounts of tax payer dollars to minimize extreme weather events and the injuries and damage that they cause. This is a scam intended to bring government control of fossil fuels.
President Obama's Climate Action Plan, included in his budget request, is a massive government give-away program to friends of junk science climate change. Solar, wind, natural gas and nuclear power stand to benefit the most. Coal fired power plants that produce 40% of the country's electricity, are on the chopping block (The cost of electricity will skyrocket in accord with the president's plan). The Keystone pipeline has little chance. Big oil companies are targeted for tax increases (to be passed on to customers). Cars and trucks must be downsized into wheeled caskets. Fortifying coastlines and flood plains against flooding, a massively expensive exercise in futility(Sea levels increased thirty feet above present during the last interglacial warm period). River and flood plain barriers are naturally destined to overflow. The U.S will send taxpayer dollars to foreign countries to reduce or mitigate the effect of carbon emissions. That is just more graft to contribute to this country's dangerous debt.
The president concluded, "And finally, my administration will redouble our efforts to engage our international partners in reaching a new global agreement to reduce carbon pollution through concrete action." This is a subterfuge to bind the U.S. to a UN treaty that puts a price on carbon and is a giant step toward global government.
The question arises, where did President Obama find the junk science misinformation that is the basis for his climate action plan? This question found its answer on September 20, 2013 in Al Gore's Climate Reality blog. He wrote: "Three years ago, Congress failed to put a price on carbon and, in doing so, allowed global warming pollution to continue unabated. We have seen the disturbing consequences that the climate crisis has to offer -- from a drought that covered 60% of our nation to Superstorm Sandy which wreaked havoc and cost the taxpayers billions, from wildfires spreading across large areas of the American West to severe flooding in cities all across our country -- we have seen what happens when we fail to act. We need a price on carbon. We need it now."
On October 29, 2013, the anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, Al's Climate Reality Team blog contained, "And today, we hope you will speak up about solutions to the problem that fuels extreme weather like typhoons in the Phiippines...severe flooding in Bangladesh...unprecedented drought in African countries...and so much more: climate change."
"We know manmade climate change is happening thanks to carbon pollution, and we know how to start solving it with a price on carbon and a shift to renewable energy. Meanwhile extreme weather events continue to occur with increasingly devastating results."
"So today as we remember the deadliest and most costly hurricane the Atlantic saw in 2012, as well as countless storms all over the world that have taken lives and torn apart communities, we must also think about what we need to do to stop it."
America dodged a bullet. The man who wrote these dangerous words came within a gnat's eyelash of being President of the U.S. Now the truth comes out. Al makes no bones that junk science scare tactics are intended to stampede the public into pressuring Congress to "act" by putting a "price on carbon," "now." He fails to mention that a price on carbon would likely make him a multi-billionaire while it would raise the cost of energy for all Americans.
Al blames AGW for a "climate crisis" that includes extensive drought, Superstorm Sandy, wildfires and severe flooding in the U.S. during 2012-2013. According to Al, if Congress had put a price on carbon, "global warming pollution" might not have caused these extreme weather events. This is fear mongering nonsense.
Al's books and movies have been effective in brainwashing the public, including President Obama and the Democrats. Their misunderstanding of AGW and climate change are dangerous. Before his election President Obama said that his plan would necessarily cause electricity prices to skyrocket. Guess where that came from? His policies would have caused gasoline to skyrocket too except that fracking has made the U.S. one of the world's leading reserves of fossil fuels. The evil oil companies saved the economy from an Obama-Gore disaster.
Al's ignorance of atmospheric circulation dynamics and synoptic meteorology is well documented, by him and others. He
knows nothing about the natural atmosphere-ocean processes responsible for extreme weather events. His belief that extreme weather events are a consequence of surface warming is false. Satellite imagery in this report will demonstrate that most extreme weather is generated and controlled by upper atmosphere processes.
A. Typhoon Haiyan and Atlantic Ocean Basin Hurricanes:
The Philippines are pummeled by an average of 20 typhoons every year. The country of more than 7000 islands is struck by more tropical cyclones every year than any other nation. Fatalities and property damage occur with almost every tropical cyclone without a peep from U.S. online, TV news and print news media.
But when it became evident that super typhoon Haiyan killed thousands and damaged or destroyed nearly 100,000 homes, it became a poster child for climate change in the U.S. left-wing news media. Air-ocean science pretenders came out of the woodwork to testify that Haiyan proves storms are getting stronger due to the world's use of fossil fuels (AGW). Media outlets published tales of agony by politicians, diplomats, Hollywood stars, and atmospheric science illiterates claiming that Haiyan's devastation might have been prevented if action had been taken to reduce fossil fuel use. This is silly.
Al Gore's Climate Reality Project blog included on November 13, 2013: "Although the full extent to which climate change influenced Typhoon Haiyan has not yet been determined, the storm is another reminder of how climate change has already made extreme weather more extreme. This horrific example of dirty weather shows just how critical your work to put a market price on carbon and a political price on denial is."
Al's claim, "the storm is another reminder of how climate change has already made extreme weather more extreme" is fear mongering nonsense. Al will exploit any disaster to promote his "market price on carbon."
An air-ocean science pretender on one of the nightly TV newscasts blamed both Typhoon Haiyan and the dearth of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean this year on AGW. He explained that wacky weather is caused by the planet warming due to AGW. This is nuts. His "new weather normal" has no conclusive scientific basis. Yet millions of TV viewers were brainwashed by this fear mongering nonsense. We shall scrutinize the phony new normal for typhoon and hurricanes with satellite imagery later.
U.S. media interest was piqued by satellite evidence that Typhoon Haiyan had 195 mph sustained winds three hours before landfall. This would make Haiyan the most powerful typhoon/hurricane to ever make landfall. No media source mentioned that Haiyan's wind estimate did not include data from hurricane hunter aircraft.
The Philippine Meteorological Agency advised that Haiyan made landfall near Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar. Forty-minutes before landfall, Guiuan reported sustained 10-minute average winds of 96-mph, with a pressure of 977-mb. Evidently those data were instrumental in PMA's assessment that Haiyan's sustained winds at landfall were 147-mph. This is far below the most powerful tropical cyclone at landfall. Haiyan's storm surge was reported at 13-feet above MSL. Obviously, from the photos of Guiuan after Haiyan passage, it was a CAT 5 typhoon. But the buildings were not built to U.S. typhoon damage prevention specs. Classifying Haiyan as the most powerful tropical cyclone at landfall deserves scrutiny.
Hurricane Camille made landfall in Mississippi with 190-mph sustained winds measured from hurricane hunter aircraft. Camille's pressure was 907-mb. Camille's storm surge height was measured at 24-feet.
According to Wikipedia, Camille was the second strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane in recorded history, second only to the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. This hurricane's minimum barometric pressure was 892-mb and storm surge was approximately 18-20 feet.
BTW: Hurricane Katrina estimated to be a CAT 3 storm with 120 mph sustained winds blew apart every home and business within 1500 feet of the shoreline in Hancock County, MS. Most of these buildings were built to hurricane damage prevention specs. The only thing left were slabs with a pile of dimensional lumber downwind. Plywood roof panels were blown further downwind. My 2800 sq. ft. brick veneer home, 1000-feet off the beach disappeared. The only things left on its' slab were two overturned cast iron bathtubs. Appliances were on the yard downwind. The refrigerator and freezer disappeared.
A neighbor's brand new RV garage built to hurricane specs with eight 12" x12" columns anchored to the slab with 4-3/4" steel rods disappeared. The eighteen ft. columns were all blown over with steel rods bent or severed. Huge old growth pine trees were flattened. Smaller pine trees snapped above the base. Hurricane Katrina's storm surge was 30-feet in Waveland, MS. It was 29-ft measured by tree bark scouring at my lot.
According to the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, damage done by Katrina's winds were significantly greater than that normally attributed to 120-mph sustained winds. This wind speed estimate was based primarily on a first time use of an SFMR from a hurricane hunter aircraft. It was wrong. Katrina had a double eyewall. At landfall the outer eyewall was most intense. It subjected the entire Mississippi coast to a 2-3 minute sustained wind of at least CAT 4. The SFMR averaged winds from one side of the outer eyewall to the other. The average failed to measure the true maximum eyewall wind speed. Recognizing the damage was not supported by CAT 3 winds, government authorities attributed the damage to storm surge. Insurance companies were ecstatic that false official government data relieved them from paying wind damage claims.
Dimensional lumber piled facing downwind and individual plywood roof panels further downwind of slabs together with tree damage put the lie to the storm surge claim. Also, a video taken during the entire hurricane passage showed no waves. The storm surge came in with the eye. It merely rose, churned lumber around for an hour then receded without wave action. It could not have done the damage observed along the coast.
What does this landfall wind data demonstrate? Maximum sustained winds at landfall are an estimate. Judging one or the other Typhoon/Hurricane as the most powerful on record is a political exercise in futility.
November 7, 2013-Twenty-hours before landfall, Typhoon Haiyan is located near 8.0 degrees North Latitude. This is much closer to the Equator than most major typhoons. At this latitude the typhoon is not influenced by wind shear. Ocean temperature caused by seasonal solar heating exceeds 85 degrees F. These dynamic features account for the typhoon's CAT5 intensity. AGW is not responsible.
November 7, 2013-Typhoon Haiyan will make landfall in two-hours. It is near 11.0 degrees latitude. Surface temperature is slightly cooler. Haiyan's low level winds are being slowed by friction with the land. High altitude outflow has been compacted. It must have lost some intensity from the previous frame.
November 8, 2013-Haiyan is weakening rapidly due to all of the above. High altitude outflow has been weakened. High altitude wind shear is separating top from bottom of the storm. Sea surface temperature is cooler at 13.0 degrees latitude. AGW was never a factor in Haiyan's development or dissipation. Air-ocean science pretenders deluded the public in media brainwash presentations.
September 13, 2013-This is Hurricane Humberto after upper altitude wind shear separated its top from its bottom reducing it to a tropical storm. It will not reintensify if the wind shear continues. This wind shear resulted from cold air generating southwesterly upper level winds.
September 13, 2013-Strong southwest wind shear is blowing Humberto's upper circulation toward the northeast.
October 4, 2013-Tropical Storm Karen was predicted on the basis of sea surface temperatures to become a hurricane. Westerly wind shear is now blowing the storm apart.
October 4, 2013-Karen did not become a hurricane. Wind shear generated by a weak cold pocket south of Louisiana prevented Karen from intensifying.
October 23, 2013-Tropical Storm Lorenzo cannot intensify. Its' cyclonic flow bottom has been decoupled from its' convection top.
October 23, 2013-Northwesterly flow on the periphery of the polar front jet stream has decoupled Lorenzo from top to bottom. The storm is moving north into stronger northwesterly winds. It cannot intensify.
Humberto, Karen and Lorenzo were prevented from becoming hurricanes by wind shear caused by cold air creating upper level westerly winds. The air-ocean science pretender's nightly news explanation that AGW caused the low number of Atlantic Basin hurricanes was junk science. Surface warmth did not cause tropical cyclone decoupling. This kind of fear mongering propaganda did not just misinform TV news viewers, it permeates government produced lesson plans provided to school systems. We are brainwashing another generation of junk science climate change addicts.
B. The Halloween 2013 Storm (cyclone, cold and warm fronts)-
In his Climate Action Plan, President Obama holds fossil fuels, as the cause of AGW and climate change, responsible for causing extreme weather events that result in loss of life and destruction. He insists that the U.S. Government must take action to reduce use of fossil fuels in order to limit cost of devastation caused by extreme weather events. This is preposterous.
The president's fear mongering propaganda is based on junk science. High altitude circulation features are responsible for generation and control of extreme weather events, not surface warmth or AGW. For example, the Halloween 2013 storm that created heavy rain, intense winds, tornadoes and floods began as a tiny high altitude cold pocket that generated a cyclone that powered a cold air outbreak from Canada. The cold air clashed with moist air along a cold front that extended from Texas to Wisconsin, then a warm front to New York. Water vapor, from the subtropical Pacific Ocean, warmed by seasonal solar heating, allowed the cyclone to gain power over the cool, dry Rocky Mountains. This resulted in a strong temperature contrast in mid-levels that generated a thermal wind jet stream well above and parallel to the maximum temperature contrast. Diverging winds southeast of the jet stream were responsible for strong upward vertical motion that created the heavy rain, intense winds, tornadoes and floods.
U.S. Government climate change spokespersons assert that a 1.0 degree F. average surface temperature increase and 4% water vapor increase caused by AGW since 1980 has resulted in increased buoyancy in the near surface atmosphere. They say this additional buoyancy is responsible for a substantial contribution to extreme weather events, especially heavy rainfall bursts and extreme flooding. This is speculative at best. Average near-surface buoyancy, in itself, is not sufficient to cause an extreme precipitation rate. Strong upward vertical motion due to a steep mid-level lapse rate and/or high altitude divergence is more likely responsible. This will be evident in the following satellite imagery presentations.
October 26, 2013-The GOES satellite water vapor image reveals genesis of the Halloween storm as a high altitude cold pocket or short wave trough evidenced by a comma shaped cloud approaching the Queen Charlotte Islands, off British Columbia. To a meteorologist, this is a positive vorticity (spin) advection maximum or PVA max. The comma shaped cloud, caused by upward vertical motion, outlines strong divergence in the winds moving from west to east through the PVA max. This high altitude cold process results in the beginning of most mid-latitude storms. AGW is not involved.
The strong cold front entering Alaska is perfectly positioned to control movement of the storm generated by the cold pocket. It will force the polar front jet stream north into Alaska. As the thermal wind jet stream proceeds north beyond the cold front temperature contrast it will arch and return south. That perfectly timed flow will push the new cyclone south to Nevada, where it will spin for several days while organizing a cold outbreak and associated cold and warm frontal systems.
October 27, 2013-The 30,000 ft. jet stream prediction by National Weather Service Office, Anchorage, Alaska shows development of the cold outbreak over the U.S. Southwest. The new cyclone, located on the Canadian border is organizing the cold outbreak. The strong polar front jet stream is the loader of cold air. It pushes north into Alaska, picks up a load of frigid air then arches over and moves that cold air south depositing it on the periphery of the new cyclone that is being pushed south into Nevada.
October 27, 2013-Cloud motion winds between 25,000 and 50,000 ft. offer a different perspective. The temperature contrast across the cold front has generated a strong thermal wind jet stream moving into Alaska. This flow will outrun the cold front temperature contrast as it moves into Alaska, where it will arch over and return south over the East Pacific and the Pacific Northwest.
October 28, 2013-The tiny cold pocket has matured into a deep cold-core cyclone in Nevada. This system is moving cold air out of Canada and surrounding itself with cold air to form a cold air outbreak. Snow falls along the Sierra's and throughout the Rockies. Blizzards shut down travel in many areas.
AGW is not involved. Surface temperatures are in the 20's and 30's. Dew points are in the 30's. There is no heat index. Moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond reinforces warm moist air from the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This moisture is a direct result of seasonal solar heating that far surpasses infrared radiation from carbon dioxide. A cold front is forming between the two air masses.
October 29, 2013-The cold-core cyclone in Nevada and its surrounding cold outbreak are being reinforced with a strong jet stream of cold air coming out of Alaska and Canada. This jet stream is powered by a strong temperature contrast between the cold-core cyclone and a heat dome to the west.
Halloween 2013-Cloud top temperatures (height) over the Halloween cold and warm fronts are seen in infrared from the GOES satellite. Wind vectors are derived from cloud motions between 5- and 10-miles high. The center of the high altitude cold-outbreak is in Kansas. A cold front extends from central Texas into Wisconsin where a warm front extends east into New York. The jet stream is a thermal wind caused by the mid-level temperature contrast between warm moist air to the south and cold dry air to the north. Low level moisture now flows from the Gulf of Mexico, which has been heated by seasonal solar heating. Upper level moisture (ice crystals) continues to flow from the tropical Pacific ocean as well. Heavy precipitation occurs along the southeast side of the jet stream where winds separate from the jet stream (diverge) and turn clockwise. This leaves a void in the upper atmosphere that forces vertical motion upward resulting in enhanced cloud development and precipitation. Diverging winds are most pronounced (turning from southwest to northwest) over Louisiana and Texas where red splotches signify coldest (highest) cloud tops. Heavy rainfall, floods and tornadoes are occurring under these extremely high clouds. EF5 tornadoes in Moore, Oklahoma and in Joplin, Missouri formed under this same high altitude divergence pattern (See EF5 tornado section).
Halloween evening, 2013-The water vapor image shows moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the Northeast and South. High cloud tops offshore of Louisiana are associated with high humidity from the Gulf of Mexico, ice crystals from Tropical Storm Raymond and extreme upper level divergence (See cloud motion winds in next frame).
High clouds along the U.S.-Canada border are in response to a fast moving PVA max over Wisconsin with a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone (See PVA max tutorial next). This storm is responsible for several tornadoes and more than 200-high wind reports over the Midwest and Northeast.
Halloween evening, 2013- Thermal winds over the zone of maximum temperature contrast power the jet stream from its origination in Mexico through the Great Lakes and into the Canadian Maritimes. Wind direction veers on the warm side of the thermal contrast resulting in strong divergence and upward vertical motion enhancing precipitation rates.
The PVA max over Wisconsin is the remnant of the cold outbreak at this level. It is barely perceptible in the wind field, but it is strong enough to generate an intense surface cyclone when it passes over the lower level warm front temperature contrast (See PVA max tutorial next).
Halloween 2013- 23-tornadoes and 281-wind reports were recorded along the cold and warm fronts for the 24-hours of Halloween by the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center.
B. Positive Vorticity Advection Maximum (PVA max) Tutorial-
This tutorial is for the 97% of scientists who have convinced President Obama, Al Gore and the Administrator of NOAA that fossil fuels are responsible for death and destruction caused by extreme storm events. Most mid-latitude storms begin as a PVA max that moves over a lower level temperature contrast resulting in cyclogenesis. AGW is insignificant.
October 26, 2013- This is the National Weather Service wind and temperature analysis at about four miles high. The PVA max responsible for the Halloween 2013 storm is barely perceptible in the wind field near the Alaska - Canada border.
October 26, 2013-Eight hours later the PVA max is being pushed south inland from Queen Charlotte Islands. Comma shaped cloud tops outline diverging winds and upward vertical motion downwind of the PVA max. Clear skies outline converging winds and sinking air upwind of the PVA max.
The PVA max is closing in on a lower level temperature contrast evident in this infrared temperature image. Cold low clouds over Canada become cloud free with a warm surface over the U.S.
October 27, 2013-Fifteen hours later the PVA max is on the Canada-U.S. border. The bundle of temperature lines south of the PVA max is becoming compressed. Alternating upward vertical motion and downward vertical motion as the PVA max moves over the strong temperature contrast results in cyclogenesis.
October 28, 2013- From a PVA max to an intense high altitude cyclone in 24-hours is not unusual.
October 28, 2013-This is the surface wind chart for the same time as the upper wind chart above. Diverging winds in the southeast quadrant of the upper cyclone have created an intense surface storm. The two cyclones will soon merge and become a cold-core cyclone. This cyclone will spin for several days bringing cold air from Canada south to form a cold air outbreak under and weakening the upper level cyclone. A cold front forms between the cold outbreak and warm air to the south.
November, 01, 2013-Remains of the cyclonic flow over the cold outbreak have moved east as a PVA max now located over Lake Huron.
November 01, 2013-An intense surface cyclone has been created by divergence downwind of the PVA max at the same time as the upper level analysis. This storm was responsible for several tornadoes and over 200-high wind reports.
The question arises, where did the original PVA max and the flow that pushed it south originate?
Halloween Storm 2013 Origin:
A surprising amount of coordination and synchronization between disparate circulation features was required to carry out the extreme weather event of Halloween 2013. This suggests intelligent control:
October 17, 2013-The PVA max that will launch the Halloween 2013 storm over the U.S. is over Lake Baikal, Siberia.
October 20, 2013- The Halloween 2013 PVA max is south of Hokkaido, Japan.
October 23, 2013-The Halloween 2013 PVA max has become a cyclone with cold front segment over the Dateline. It is shedding some cyclonic spin as the front moves rapidly east in the zone of maximum westerly winds.
The ridge that pushes the Halloween PVA max south to Nevada will be developed by the PVA max in the Sea of Okhotsk.
October 24, 2013-The cyclone in the Bering Sea will impart the spin that becomes the Halloween PVA max.
The ridge-to-be is still a PVA max approaching the Dateline.
October 25, 2013-The Halloween PVA max is approaching the Alaska-Canada border.
The trailing PVA max has become a cyclone with a rapidly strengthening south-north front segment, south of the Aleutian Islands. Strong cold air advection is compacting the frontal temperature contrast, which intensifies the thermal wind jet stream flowing into Alaska.
The tail end west-east front segment is outrunning the north-south segment. It is entering a heat dome and will be short lived.
October 26, 2013- This is where we came in at the beginning of the Halloween storm section. Notice how the trailing PVA max became a powerful cyclone pulling frigid air south and east to create a very strong front segment by compacting the temperature contrast. This was necessary to send the jet stream into Alaska with just enough force to double back at just the right location to push the Halloween PVA max south to Nevada. Clouds in advance of the front have evaporated under a heat dome produced by converging winds and sinking air.
At the same time Tropical Storm Raymond is pushing low level moisture north and high level moisture east to hydrate the southern air mass.
C. Severe floods over Arizona, New Mexico and the Colorado front range.
Most of the U.S. was in a drought during 2012. Wildfires replenished forests and grasslands. With that housekeeping function completed, heavy rainfall and flooding hydrated the land from the East Coast west to the eastern Great Plains during 2013. The Rocky Mountain foothills and western Great Plains were next. An ingenious sequence of coordinated weather events did the job.
August 20, 2013-A PVA max southwest of Lake Baikal will provide the upper level spin responsible for Colorado floods three weeks from today.
August 27, 2013-One week later, the PVA max is southeast of Kamchatka merging with a polar front segment.
August 31, 2013-The PVA max merged with the polar front segment resulting in cyclogenesis. Now it is a mature cold-core (cyclonic spin from high altitude to the surface) cyclone, west of Washington State. Monsoons over the Southwest reveal humid air arriving over the Great Basin and Rockies from the East Pacific Ocean.
September 03, 2013-The polar front thermal wind jet stream over the maximum horizontal temperature gradient wraps around the cyclone into a heat dome (anticyclone) over the Great Plains. This will force warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the East Pacific Ocean over the Rockies. It will also block the cyclone's eastward progress.
September 4, 2013-Infrared cloud top temperatures (heights) show the cold-core cyclone and temperature gradient have pulled the polar front jet stream northward into British Columbia and east then south into the Midwest. This results in wind convergence south of the jet stream and formation of a heat dome over the Southwest. Surface temperatures approach or exceed 100 degrees F. in parts of Texas and the southern Great Plains.
September 07, 2013-The cold-core cyclone center moved into Washington State. The heat dome is bringing warm moist tropical air in upper-level rivers into the Rockies from the Gulf of Mexico and East Pacific Ocean.
September 08, 2013-Remnants of Tropical Storm Lorena over Mexico enhance the rivers of humid air resulting in heavy rain over Arizona.
September 10, 2013-The upper-level cyclone center has been forced south into California by a heat dome coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Rain begins to fall in New Mexico and along the front range in Colorado. Extremely dry air over the Pacific Ocean is being entrained into the cyclone circulation. Nevertheless the upper level rivers of moist air will provide sufficient moisture for heavy rain in New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming.
September 10, 2013-Upper level divergence between cyclonic flow and weaker veering winds lifts tropical moisture above the freezing level, resulting in heavy rainfall over eastern Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado.
September 11, 2013-The upper level cyclone center located over Las Vegas is trapped and forced south by a heat dome over British Columbia. Diverging winds result in heavy rainfall over eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado.
September 13, 2013-The heat domes over the Pacific Northwest and the Great Plains are collapsing allowing the cyclone to move northeast. Nevertheless diverging winds east of the cyclone continue to focus heavy rain on eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado.
September 13, 2013-Tropical Storm Manuel forming south of Cabo San Lucas begins to feed the upper level river of tropical moisture extending into New Mexico and Colorado.
September 14, 2013-Moisture continues to flow from the remnant of Tropical Storm Manuel north to New Mexico, Colorado and the Great Plains. Divergence weakens and rain stops. But starts again tomorrow as divergence returns.
100,000 thunderstorms occur every year in the U.S. Tornadoes average 1300. 1 or 2 tornadoes are EF5 with wind speeds over 200 mph. Something special must happen in the atmosphere to create the uniquely intense winds of an EF5 tornado. This special circulation feature has not yet been unequivocally identified. We shall look at various possibilities as inferred from satellite imagery.
The EF5 tornado that tore through a neighborhood of Moore, OK on May 20, 2013, killed 25 and injured 377 people. It caused $2 billion in damage. This loss of life and high cost of damage invited government functionaries and bureaucrats to claim a share of responsibility for climate change. One asserted, "The main climate change connection is via the basic instability of the low-level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. The oceans are warmer because of climate change.
The climate change effect is probably only a five to 10 percent effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 33 percent effect in terms of damage."
This is fear mongering nonsense. An increase of 1.4 degrees F. average surface temperature since 1850 attributed to AGW (fossil fuels) cannot contribute five to 10 percent effect in terms of instability and subsequent rainfall in thunderstorms. A 33 percent effect in terms of damage is hallucinatory.
"The oceans are warmer because of climate change" is meaningless as warmer and moister conditions for unstable air. Most of the moisture that affects low level buoyancy in thunderstorms comes from the subtropics and tropics of the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and eastern Pacific Ocean. High temperatures are almost exclusively the result of seasonal solar heating. Sea surface temperature heating due to AGW would be ephemeral, at best. It would be mixed downward through the mixed layer almost immediately.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center(SPC) recorded 37 tornadoes between Texas and Indiana during the 24 hour period from 7 AM CDT May 20, 2013 to 7 AM CDT May 21, 2013. There were 447 reports of severe weather from thunderstorms.
An EF5 tornado demolished a neighborhood of Moore, Oklahoma with peak winds estimated at 210 mph. The tornado was on the ground between 2:56 PM and 3:35 PM CDT. Twenty five people were killed. Damage was estimated at $2 billion.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center(SPC) recorded 35 tornadoes between Oklahoma and Indiana during the 24 hour period from 7 AM CDT May 31, 2013 to 7 AM CDT June 1, 2013. There were 329 reports of severe weather from thunderstorms.
An EF5 tornado severely damaged El Reno, Oklahoma and demolished vehicles on I-40 with wind speeds in excess of 296 mph. The tornado touched down at 6:03 PM and dissipated around 6:43 PM. There were 8 fatalities and 151 injuries. Damage was estimated at $35-40 million.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center(SPC) recorded 75 tornadoes between Texas and Wisconsin during the 24 hour period from 7 AM CDT May 22, 2011 to 7 AM CDT May 23, 2011. There were 843 reports of severe weather in thunderstorms.
An EF5 tornado with peak wind speeds of 225-250 mph severely damaged Joplin, Missouri. 158 persons were killed, 1150 were injured. Damage cost $2.91 billion.
Atmospheric circulation features common to all three EF5 tornadoes.
The EF5 tornadoes that severely damaged Moore, OK, El Reno, OK and Joplin, MO, had several features in common. Each EF5 tornado formed on the third day of a cold air outbreak in the warm sector of a cold-core cyclone located over South Dakota/Minnesota, with an occluded frontal system (cold front overrunning the warm front). The cold fronts were oriented southwest-northeast. The EF5's were among the southern-most tornadoes on that date. The EF5 tornadoes moved from west to east while most tornadoes moved from southwest to northeast.
Thunderstorms in advance of cold fronts were oriented from SW to NE. The three EF5 tornadoes occurred in the crook of the cold front where it turned from east to northeast. This turn forced the thermal wind jet stream to turn also as it followed the low level temperature contrast. This resulted in high altitude wind divergence (spreading and accelerating) enhancing upward vertical motion between 5- and 10-miles high over super-cell thunderstorms and the EF5 tornadoes.
All three EF5 tornadoes were spawned along a dry line as the sun angle moved into the west. Thunderstorms begin to form after noon over foothills in Oklahoma and Kansas that have been strongly heated by the rising sun. A sharp humidity contrast is created by strong down-flow dry winds from the west clashing with warm humid winds from the Gulf of Mexico. This results in strong low-level upward vertical motion in a manner similar to sea breeze fronts.
The line of temperature and moisture demarcation between hot arid foothills and cool humid bottomlands, called a dry line, is a preferred location for severe thunderstorm initiation. It is likely the reason that Oklahoma City and its suburbs receive more tornadoes than any other U.S. city.
Low level buoyancy caused by high surface temperatures and humidity was not exceptional. It did not differentiate between EF0 and EF5 tornadoes. AGW and climate change were not evident.
The Moore, Oklahoma EF5 Tornado:
May 20, 2013-Convective uplift from a dry line along the foothills generated the super-cell that spawned the Moore, OK, EF5 tornado that touched down forty-six minutes after this image was taken. Solar heating was the primary temperature contributor to low level buoyancy.
The heat index over the Texas panhandle was nil (86/16). The heat index of 91(85/72) at Oklahoma City, before the super-cell moved through, was not exceptional. This buoyancy measure alone was not capable of spawning an EF5 tornado.
May 20, 2013-Two hours before touchdown, warm humid surface air from the Gulf of Mexico is flowing into southeast Oklahoma where it is met by cooler dry air from the west. This is the primary source of moisture for thunderstorm, super-cell and squall line developments. Seasonal solar heating is responsible for sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico. The climate change effect of a 1.4 degree F. increase in average surface temperature attributed to fossil fuels during the last century and a half could not be responsible for 5 to 10% of the buoyancy required to generate an EF5 tornado. Nor could it be responsible for 33% of the damage to Moore, OK.
May 20, 2013-With two hours until tornado touchdown, southwesterly upper level flow throughout Kansas and westerly flow in Texas result in a region of diverging winds over Moore.
May 20, 2013-The Moore, OK, EF5 tornado touched down four minutes ago. Water vapor rivers from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico are providing ice crystals to the thunderstorm cluster. Ice crystals act as condensation nuclei increasing precipitation rates and heat transfer from the surface to the upper atmosphere.
May 20, 2013-At this time, the EF5 tornado is ravaging Moore, OK. Low level water vapor, indicated by pop-up cumulus clouds from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, is enhancing convective instability (buoyancy). Diverging winds (spreading and accelerating) extended vertical motion upward contributing to the squall line and super-cell that spawned the EF5 tornado.
May 20, 2013-Twenty-five minutes after the EF5 tornado lifted off, a jet stream streak is over the thunderstorm complex. Strong upper level divergence (spreading and acceleration) continues.
The El Reno, Oklahoma EF5 Tornado:
May 31, 2013-Two hours before touchdown near El Reno, OK, high altitude divergence is evident over Oklahoma.
May 31, 2013-A super-cell forms on the dry line one-hour 18 minutes before the El Reno EF5 tornado touches down, under diverging winds.
May 31, 2013-Eighteen minutes before touchdown, a new super-cell forms on the Texas border.
June 1, 2013-0ne-hour after the EF5 tornado lifts off, wind vectors that were over the tornado are seen downwind of El Reno, OK. Divergence was pronounced over Kansas and Oklahoma at the tail end of the cold front.
The Joplin, Missouri EF5 Tornado:
May 22, 2011-Thirty minutes after the Joplin EF5 tornado lifts from the ground, diverging winds are evident in cloud top blow off that occurred while the tornado was on the ground. Westerly jet stream winds are apparent on the Missouri-Arkansas border where a west-east oriented squall line extends into Tennessee. Behind that squall line, cloud top blow off is toward the southeast, presumably due to a downdraft of cold air from the super-cell that spawned the EF5 tornado. To the north, cloud blow off is toward the northeast. To the south cloud blow off is toward the southeast, presumably south of the cold front temperature contrast. This places the center of diverging winds over Joplin while the EF5 tornado was on the ground.
A unique circulation feature common to each EF5 tornado was its location at the tail end of the cold front on the third day of a cold outbreak resulting in strong diverging upper atmosphere winds. This divergence did not result in the highest cloud tops but is associated with squall line and super-cell development. After all it is this upper level divergence in advance of a PVA max that is responsible for surface storm cyclogenesis.
In his Inaugural Address, on January 21, 2013, President Obama said, "We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought and more powerful storms."
President Obama compounded this fear mongering propaganda in his State of the Union Address on February 12, 2013. He said, "But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it's true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods — all are now more frequent and intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science — and act before it's too late."
President Obama also pledged, “If Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will. I will direct my cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.”
President Obama's litany of out-of-control extreme weather events caused by use of fossil fuels, is based on junk science. His pledge to come up with executive actions to combat the Congress on climate change reveals contempt for the U.S. Constitution and dictatorial insanity. Combating climate change is absolute nonsense and dangerous. The president's actions can do nothing to influence climate change and could cripple the U.S. economy. His geoengineering of the atmosphere to reduce surface temperature can make the planet toxic to humans.
The president's words were patently false. He said, "Heat waves, droughts, wildfires and floods-all are now more frequent and intense." Evidence of wildfires (preceded by heat waves, droughts and thunderstorms) has been found dating back 420 million years. Examples of extreme weather events, much more severe than today, are documented throughout recorded history. The intensity of Superstorm Sandy and the Nor'easter of February 2013 was eclipsed by many twentieth century storms. The heat wave and drought of the 1930s has not been equalled for longevity or devastation. AGW is not responsible for the U.S. record heat and drought of 2012.
President Obama and his Cabinet can do nothing to prevent or mitigate extreme weather events, including heat waves, droughts, storms, wildfire ignition, and floods. Satellite imagery and cloud motion winds in this website will prove conclusively that AGW was not responsible for the "twelve hottest years on record, superstorm Sandy, the most severe drought in decades and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen." These extreme weather events were normal acts of nature. If combating the phony threat of climate change means restricting fossil fuel use or geoengineering the atmosphere, the president will betray our children and future generations.
Extreme weather events (high winds/seas, heavy precipitation, floods, heat waves, droughts, wildfires) are nature's housekeeping functions. Extreme weather events(EWE) maintain health of forests and grasslands by replacing old growth with new; removing underbrush; controlling disease, insects, vermin, fungi, rot; cleaning river bottoms and flood plains; recharging aquifers; restoring sand on barrier islands, etc.
Most EWE are powered by middle and upper atmosphere temperature contrasts and wind divergence associated with upper level cold pockets, cyclones, fronts, heat domes and the jet stream. Passage of storms and fronts can cause surface temperature to change by more than 100 degrees F. at a single location. Record breaking heat waves are caused by air being compressed as it sinks from high altitudes. Droughts result from the absence of storms and fronts. Lightning ignites wildfires. All of these EWE are controlled by upper atmosphere processes. AGW surface warming has not increased the frequency and intensity of EWE.
According to climate change science, Earth is covered by a heavier than air carbon dioxide blanket, emitted from burning fossil fuels, that warms the surface by an average 0.02 degrees F. annually. This surface heating is calculated to increase water vapor in the atmosphere by 4% over the past fifty years. These two speculative numbers are the basis for the claim that frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are increasing. This is junk science. The numbers are subjective and irrelevant. Both are in the noise of daily temperature and humidity changes.
Assumptions required to compute a global average surface temperature are voluminous. Tuning constants applied to extrapolation, interpolation and smoothing functions allow adjustment of the result to preordained values. Fudge factors assure agreement between computer centers. It's amazing that so many scientists accept on faith, validity of the average annual planetary surface temperature from three computer centers dedicated to promoting ACC.
Despite fudge factors, the difference between NOAA and NASA average global temperature for 2012 was 30% of the total temperature increase computed for the past fifty years. Tropical cyclones and major mid-latitude storms receive moisture from the Tropics where solar heating is several orders of magnitude more powerful than carbon dioxide warming. AGW is inconsequential for frequency and intensity of EWE.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in an attempt to blame AGW for severity of damage caused by EWE, now reports EWE that cost one billion dollars or more in damage. There were fourteen such events in 2011 and eleven in 2012. These numbers are propaganda. They have nothing to do with AGW. Coincidence and population density determine damage caused by an EWE. For example, it was coincidence that superstorm Sandy made landfall, on a westerly track near Atlantic City, N.J., where population density and value of real property and infrastructure is a maximum.
Satellite imagery will prove conclusively in Section VI that Sandy's power was not influenced by AGW.
II. The Warmest Year on Record
AGW is being blamed for the warmest year on record in the lower 48 States in 2012, including heat waves, drought and wildfires. This is nonsense. AGW warms Earth's surface, but not enough, by any known atmospheric process, to result in high temperature records. Upper atmosphere wind and temperature patterns determine surface temperature extremes. One need only watch TV Weather to learn that high and low temperatures are associated with jet stream undulations.
July 20, 2012-The infrared temperature image reveals an extreme heat wave over the Plains. Many surface temperatures in the red and violet region exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Surface temperatures on the fringes of the region are colder signifying the heat is generated within the region. Moisture is being imported from the Gulf of Mexico. Nevertheless, convective clouds are suppressed. This heat wave can only be generated by compression of sinking air from high altitude and sunshine unimpeded by clouds. Upper level wind and temperature patterns controlling this heat wave are shown in the next panel.
This is the NOAA/National Weather Service analysis of wind and temperature nearly four-miles above sea level for July 20, 2012. Record high temperatures over 100 degrees F. were recorded in the Plains on this date. The record high temperatures were caused by compression of sinking air over the warm ridge (heat dome). Clouds were suppressed. Sunshine baked the surface. There was no evaporative cooling because the ground was dry from the low snowpack of the previous winter.
Alaska and the Pacific Northwest were cooler than normal.
This upper level wind and temperature pattern with cold air over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and warm air over the lower 48 states persisted throughout the summer and was responsible for the hottest year on record for the contiguous U.S. AGW is thought to warm the surface by 0.02 degrees F. annually. It had nothing to do with this upper level "heat dome" weather pattern.
III-Wacky Weather During January 2013-
Extreme weather events during January 2013, including cold and warm temperature records and tornadoes were attributed to AGW by some climate change scientists. They claimed that this wacky weather was the new normal caused by ACC. Arizona measured a record temperature of 81 degrees F. on the same day that Minnesota recorded -36 degrees F. Attributing this wacky weather to AGW is nonsense.
Satellite imagery and cloud motion winds reveal the source and evolution of the wacky weather. Climate of the contiguous U.S., during the cool season, is determined by atmosphere-ocean processes over Siberia and the North Pacific Ocean. Upper atmosphere cold pockets or short wave troughs move southeast out of Siberia. Surface cyclones form under divergent winds ahead of the cold pockets. Cyclonic surface winds create front segments between cold and warm air. Front segments power the jet stream with thermal winds generated by temperature contrasts. The jet stream pushes the cyclone and associated frontal segment to landfall in Alaska or the U.S. West Coast. U.S. climate results.
The following sequence of upper atmosphere events dismisses AGW as causal:
January 4, 2013-This infrared temperature image reveals a cold pocket with a crescent shaped high altitude (brown) cloud moving out of Siberia toward the Sea of Okhotsk. This system will assist in building a blocking heat dome off the U.S. West Coast. Blocking heat domes are associated with alternating record high and low temperatures downwind.
January 6, 2013-Two days later, the cold pocket has generated a powerful storm centered over the Kurile Islands. Cyclonic winds have created a polar front segment from Sakhalin Island through the tip of Kamchatka then south and west to Taiwan. The preceding front segment is passing the dateline.
January 7, 2013-On the other side of the dateline, the preceding front segment's temperature contrast is being maintained by its original generating cyclone that has moved to the Aleutian Islands. The cold side of the front is smooth while the warm side looks like the front is coming apart. A large heat dome is developing south of the front. A convective cloud deck southeast of Hawaii is sending a water vapor river to the U.S. These features will be explained by the next panel.
January 07, 2013-The jet stream passes over the dateline at 90 knots. Thermal winds, proportional to the temperature contrast across the front, accelerate the jet stream to over 200 knots on the north side of the front. This is where the mid-level temperature contrast is a maximum. As the jet stream outruns the front segment, approaching the coast, it slows rapidly and turns south.
Winds turn clockwise and decelerate south of the front. This results at first in diverging winds with upward vertical motion, then converging and sinking winds. Convective precipitation is associated with divergence aloft. Winds sinking from jet stream levels warm and dry out due to compression resulting in heat domes forming to the right of a front looking downwind. For these reasons lines of intense convective activity are typically preceded by strong warm, humid wind at the surface.
A convective cloud deck caused by diverging winds southeast of a cold cyclone over Hawaii, marks origination of a water vapor river that will provide moisture to power rain and snow storms over the U.S. Evaporative cooling of the ocean surface under the convection might be wrongly attributed to La Nina.
January 07, 2013-The original front segment lines up N-S on the dateline. A new cyclone is forming on its west flank. A heat dome has formed south of the preceding front segment.
January 8, 2013-Convection east of Hawaii sends a water vapor river to a storm gathering strength over Texas. The storm will receive most of its moisture from the Gulf of Mexico but this high altitude water vapor will supplement rainfall with ice crystals serving as condensation nuclei. The Texas drought was partially relieved by moderate to heavy rainfall during the next two days. 01080600 WV
January 8, 2013-The original front extends from the dateline to Alaska. Its heat dome is destroying the temperature contrast of the preceding front. The leading edge, of the preceding front segment, moving over British Columbia is pulling cold air out of Canada over the Rockies and Plains. Its heat dome is entering the West Coast.
January 11, 2013-Two cold pockets are approaching the stalled original front which extends from Hawaii to Kodiak, Alaska. The first cold pocket has generated a surface cyclone as evidenced by the front segment tagging along behind. The jet stream parallels the dominant front into Alaska. A heat dome has formed in advance of the dominant front and west of California. Low clouds are evaporating under the heat dome.
January 11, 2013-Fourteen hours later, the original front is weakening rapidly as the heat dome in advance of the approaching front segment is destroying the temperature contrast across the original front. The approaching front and cyclone have become dominant. The jet stream now parallels the dominant front and is accelerated north by its cyclone. Sinking, compressed warm air reveals the ocean surface under the heat dome generated by the original front segment and the approaching front.
January 11, 2013-Jet stream winds over the original front weaken as the original front loses its temperature contrast. At this front's terminus, west of Washington, winds decelerate and turn clockwise to form the oblong W-E heat dome's leading edge.
Jet stream winds approaching the new front accelerate and turn north. This extends the heat dome north into Alaska.
January 12, 2013-The jet stream now parallels the dominant front and is accelerated northward by its cyclone. The heat dome is pushing north into the Gulf of Alaska under the influence of the new front. Sinking, compressed warm air reveals the ocean surface under the heat dome, except where clouds from the original front still persist.
January 13, 2013-The jet stream is turned north and accelerated by thermal winds over the dominant front. The winds are given an additional boost by the front's cyclone near the Aleutian Islands. This pushes the jet stream well into Alaska. It emerges pushing frigid Arctic air south over the Pacific Northwest.
January 14, 2013-The blocking heat dome is fully formed off the U.S. West Coast. Additional cold pockets with trailing front segments are arriving to reinforce the heat dome. High clouds from the original front have completely evaporated. Record cold temperatures are being pulled down from the Canadian Arctic into the U.S. West.
January 14, 2013- This is the NOAA/National Weather Service upper level wind and temperature analysis. The blocking ridge (heat dome) over Alaska and Canada is pushing a frigid Arctic outbreak into the lower 48 states. A cold air pocket in Arizona anchors a huge cold air outbreak that originated in Siberia and is being reinforced from the Canadian Arctic. Unusually cold temperatures were reported in the Southwest, the Plains, Midwest and Northeast.
Warm temperatures persisted in the Southeast ahead of a cold front receiving moisture from Hawaii and the Gulf of Mexico. Alaska is warmed by a warm ridge over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.
Again, surface temperatures are controlled by upper level wind and temperature patterns. AGW is inconsequential.
January 15, 2013-The water vapor image reveals sinking, compressed, warmed and dried air evaporating a massive hole in mid- and upper-level clouds and water vapor under the blocking heat dome.
January 15, 2013-Low clouds are also being cleared by sinking dry air except where the U.S. Government is playing God again. Cloud tracks reveal metals and chemicals sprayed by chemtrails.
Although albedo is increased by the cloud tracks, long wave radiation to space is decreased from cloud tops colder than the ocean surface. Toxic materials sprayed into the atmosphere are a dangerous exercise in futility. These toxic materials are much more dangerous than AGW or the fictitious ACC.
January 22, 2013-One week later, the upper level ridge (heat dome) has moved over the Southwest and Plains. Low temperature records are replaced with high temperature records under sinking, compressed, warm air. Frigid air over Salt Lake City is capped by sinking warm air resulting in record stagnant air pollution.
January 28, 2013-This water vapor image shows sinking, warming, drying air from a passing heat dome over the Plains and Midwest. This remnant of the upper level block off the U.S. West Coast, fourteen days ago, set high temperature records both during daytime and at night. These high temperatures were not imported. Twenty-four hour temperature changes and departures from normal were centered on the Central Plains under the heat dome. Surrounding temperatures were lower. The heat dome together with high humidity from the Gulf of Mexico was solely responsible for these record high temperatures.
Fear mongers would have us believe that these high temperatures are the new normal caused by AGW. The record high average surface temperature computed for the contiguous 48 states in 2012 is also blamed on AGW. To the contrary, the country saw a steady procession of heat domes moving from west to east throughout 2012. These heat domes were primarily responsible for the annual high surface temperature record. AGW is in the noise of upper level heat dome temperature increases.
The warmest year on record was not caused by AGW. Texas began 2012 in exceptional drought. A series of upper level cold pockets tracked from Siberia to Vancouver, BC made an abrupt turn south to Arizona then became rainstorms moving east through Texas. In three months the Texas drought was gone. This peculiar storm track required each storm to be held south by a warm ridge tracking east along the Canadian border. The polar front jet stream trended north of the Canadian border. Each passing ridge warmed and dried the surface by compression of sinking air from high altitude. Rainfall and snowfall were suppressed. Extreme low snowpack and drought ensued (See www.climatechangescam.com for satellite imagery showing this weather sequence).
In the spring, cold air at upper levels stalled over Alaska and the Pacific Northwest, forcing a trapped downstream ridge(heat dome) to maintain a heat wave and drought over the central U.S during the spring and summer. High temperature records were set due to inability of storm tracks to penetrate the ridge resulting in extreme dryness with no evaporative cooling. At the same time, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest were cooler than normal.
Some climate scientists claim they predicted this extreme weather decades ago. This is hyperbole. The weather events described above are nonlinear. No computer model is capable of predicting these nonlinear events beyond several days. Climate prediction models are linear or statistical. A long verification record reveals their low skill.
III. Superstorm Sandy Debunks Climate Change.
Superstorm Sandy is another nail in the coffin of ACC. Even before Sandy made landfall, the climate science community adopted it as an example of the new normal for extreme weather events powered by AGW. Climate scientists adopted the wrong storm. Satellite cloud and wind imagery, in section VI, proves conclusively that Sandy received no energy from AGW. Sandy, like most extreme weather events, received its energy from upper atmosphere wind and temperature patterns. Sandy was completely cut off from surface warming. Superstorm Sandy was not an example of a new normal for EWE or ACC.
At the UN Climate Change Conference in Doha, Qatar, the vice chairman of the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said, "Hurricane Sandy was probably not a coincidence but an example of the extreme weather events likely to strike the U.S. more often as the world gets warmer."
Contrary to the IPCC vice chairman's opinion, Sandy was not a hurricane before it made landfall near Atlantic City, NJ. It was not even a tropical storm. Sandy was a classic meteorological bomb caused by the jet stream doubling back on itself. This happens frequently in fall and winter, when cold outbreaks move toward the Equator. In that context, Sandy was a coincidence.
Sandy became completely encased in cold, dry air from very high altitudes to the ocean surface. Remember the TV reporters and survivors complaining of the cold wind chill surrounding Sandy? Remember the heavy snowfall in West Virginia? Those clues should have led the IPCC to understand that Sandy was not a hurricane and it was not an extreme weather event, "likely to strike the U.S. more often as the world gets warmer." AGW was not to blame for Sandy.
Soon after Sandy's landfall, the Governor of New York blamed climate change for Sandy's destruction. The Mayor of New York City declared that even though President Obama did a poor job in his first term, he would endorse him for reelection because Obama would do something about climate change. The cover of Bloomberg's Newsweek blared, "It is climate change STUPID". Sorry, Mr. Mayor, it is NOT climate change, STUPID!
Blaming $82 billion worth of devastation along the New Jersey, New York coastlines on climate change is not just profound scientific ignorance, it is dishonest. A perfect-storm, expected to destroy wall to wall houses and businesses on New York City and N.Y., N.J. beaches, barrier islands and flood plains, was predicted nearly a century ago. Similar predictions are issued frequently. Long Island was hit by a major hurricane in 1938 with the loss of 600 lives and massive destruction. Despite this actual storm and scores of perfect-storm devastation predictions, New York politicians want to blame their planning and zoning failures on those of us who drive SUVs and eat cheeseburgers. Give me a break. Their intent is to convince Wash. D.C. to bail them out. Politicians promote fear of ACC to justify redistributing wealth from taxpayers to the government. In this case, to reimburse wealthy owners of shoreline property for a long anticipated coincidence.
The IPCC vice chairman told the Associated Press, "The scientific backing for man-made climate change is now so strong that it can be compared to the consensus behind the principles of gravity. It's a very, very broad consensus. There are a few individuals who don't believe it, but we are talking about science and not beliefs."
To the contrary, climate change is a set of beliefs based on speculative data, manipulated by probabilities and statistical inference with computer output accepted on faith. It fails to accept that atmospheric circulation dynamics are nonlinear and have no comparison with the linear principles of gravity.
Climate scientists, the IPCC, New York politicians and a myriad of TV and print media journalists chose the wrong storm as a poster child to celebrate the broad scientific consensus backing man-made climate change. Sandy proves that the broad scientific, political and journalistic consensus does not understand atmospheric circulation dynamics and synoptic meteorology. These scientific disciplines, unlike climate science, can explain Sandy's formation, evolution and structure in detail. (See satellite imagery).
The IPCC vice chairman is fear mongering to promote the UN Green Climate Fund that requires wealthy countries to contribute $100 billion dollars annually to less developed countries (LCD). Ostensibly this money would be used by LCD countries to mitigate damage from climate change. In reality, much of the money would make UN functionaries and bureaucrats filthy rich, like the UN oil for food program that nearly resuscitated Saddam Hussein's WMD program.
Satellite imagery and cloud motion winds from NOAA/NASA in the following pages, will clarify Superstorm Sandy's evolution into a meteorological bomb several days before landfall. Evidence of similar meteorological bombs over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, during November and December, 2012, will also be presented. These storms demonstrate that Sandy was not unusual. In every case surface cyclonic spin was generated by strong upward vertical motion created by an upper level cold pocket or short wave trough creating diverging (spreading and/or accelerating) winds. This is typical of most extreme weather events containing strong surface winds and heavy precipitation.
These physical and dynamical processes are handled well by numerical weather prediction models. Sandy's surprising westerly track, expanded wind field and landfall location were accurately predicted five days before landfall. On the other hand, climate change models are incapable of describing or predicting the evolution of extreme weather events. The greenhouse theory is incapable of handling nonlinear atmosphere processes.
Superstorm Sandy's evolution from a hurricane to a meteorological bomb is relatively complicated compared to most atmospheric bombs. For that reason, before observing Sandy's life cycle, it will be instructive to first view evidence of other meteorological bombs that made significant contributions to EWE over the U.S. in 2012.
IV. Evolution of Three Eastern Pacific Meteorological Bombs
Sandy was not unique. Less than a month after Sandy became a meteorological bomb, three bombs formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean, in very cold air. These bombs, in concert, constructed a water vapor river from the moisture rich Equator to a series of heavy rainfall and snowfall storms over the Northwest Pacific. This intricately choreographed process suggests intelligent control.
November 26, 2012-Frigid air from Siberia has moved south all the way to Hawaii behind a mature cyclone and a N-S oriented cold front. A tongue of colder air can be seen moving south from Alaska west of the mature cyclone and behind the cold front.
Thunderstorm clusters can be seen at nearly the same latitude near the Dateline (180). This suggests an approaching cold pocket or short wave trough with strong upward vertical motion.
November 27, 2012-A day later, the cold air tongue has pushed southeast, forcing the jet stream to double back on itself. At the point of maximum jet stream curvature, diverging winds (turning and accelerating) create strong upward vertical motion and rapidly falling surface pressure. History suggests formation of a meteorological bomb for this location.
Over the Dateline, diverging winds in advance of a cold pocket, are responsible for the thunderstorm clusters seen in the previous panel.
November 27, 2012-Cyclogenesis of a meteorological bomb has occurred under the point of maximum curvature in the high altitude cold tongue. This is the same process that resulted in formation of superstorm Sandy at almost the same latitude over the Atlantic Ocean.
It is time to revise the textbooks on the Norwegian cyclogenesis model that has cyclones forming only on fronts. Meteorological bombs form in cold air.
November 29, 2012-Like Sandy, this bomb is encased in cold air from the surface to jet stream levels (8 miles) and moved northwest in the jet stream back-flow, into colder surroundings. AGW had no influence. It will merge with the previous cyclone and become a cold-core cyclone with storm force surface winds. This cold-core cyclone will send cold-air pulses east that pick up moisture from a water vapor river, presently forming, and bring heavy rain and snow to California and the Pacific Northwest for several days.
Another bomb is forming over the dateline. It too will influence extreme weather events on the West Coast.
November 29, 2012-A new bomb has formed over the dateline. It's cyclonic circulation is connecting to the water vapor river that originated as a cold front extending from the East Pacific bomb. This water vapor river is weak and confined to low levels between the longitudes of Hawaii and the coast.
November 29, 2012-A tongue of cold air moving east over the dateline has resulted in the jet stream doubling back on itself, creating the dateline bomb. But in this case the cold tongue continues to move east.
The East Pacific bomb has become a mature cold-core cyclone and is moving slowly into the Gulf of Alaska. Wind divergence in advance of cold pockets (cyclonic spin) moving south and east around the mature cyclone will pick up moisture from the water vapor river and bring rain and snow into the Pacific Northwest.
December 01, 2012-Bomb cyclogenesis occurred east of the dateline under the maximum curvature (wind divergence) of the doubled back jet stream. The first bomb is moving northwest and weakening. Frigid Siberian air pumped south by both bombs is forming a cold front moving into the Tropics.
December 01, 2012-The southeast bomb has become dominant. It pumps more frigid air into a new cold front approaching Hawaii and extending deep into the Equatorial Tropics. This front becomes a water vapor river connecting to the original water vapor river that extends to a storm in the Pacific Northwest.
December 02, 2012-A precisely choreographed sequence of bomb formations 2700 miles apart has constructed a water vapor river system that transports moisture, in thermal winds over cold fronts, from the Equator to a series of storms bringing rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest.
We saw this same intelligently controlled process in 2011, transporting water vapor 4000 miles to the heavy snowfall of the winter and tornado outbreaks in the spring over the middle of the country (www.climatechangescam.com).
V A Meteorological Bomb Forms West of Hawaii.
December 9, 2012-A meteorological bomb is responsible for destroying the U.S Fish and Wildlife Service research station on Tern Island within the French Frigate shoals 490 miles northwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. A powerful cold front and squall line extending from the nascent cyclone passed over the station just before sunrise. None of the five researchers was hurt but all of the buildings were demolished. Even so, the researchers opted not to accept rescue by the U.S. Coast guard in order to clean up some debris and save valuable data. They were picked up nine days later by a USFWS ship.
December 9, 2012-Winds above five miles show extreme divergence (spreading and accelerating). This causes strong upward vertical motion. The result is cyclogenesis with powerful thunderstorms and a surface cold front and squall line. Strong cold winds out of the northwest are behind the cold front.
December 10, 2012-The new cyclone, evident in surface cloud lines, is completely encased in cold air. This cold-core will be seen in Sandy. The squall line between cold and warm air remains powerful.
December 10, 2012-The meteorological bomb developed under a jet stream that doubled back on itself as a result of a cold air outbreak from the surface to very high altitudes. This same upper level process produced superstorm Sandy.
December 12, 2012-Two days later, the upper level storm continues to spin and is pulling up warm, moist air from south of the Equator. This reinforces a water vapor river moving east toward North America.
December 12, 2012-The water vapor river is seen in relation to the reinforcing cold-core cyclone developed as a meteorological bomb.
December 15, 2012-Five days after its formation, the cyclone has moved west of the dateline but the water vapor river is now fueling a raging storm over the U.S. Central Plains. This coordination of moisture from the southern hemisphere and equatorial region south of Hawaii to rendezvous with a developing storm over the Central U.S. suggests intelligent control. Extracting moisture near Hawaii to fuel storms over the continental U.S. goes on throughout the fall, winter and spring. The heavy snowfall and severe tornado outbreaks of 2011 were fueled in this manner, at least until moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or West Atlantic Ocean became available to each individual storm (See www.climatechangescam.com).
This superstorm received its energy from extreme temperature contrasts and high altitude diverging winds. Cold, dry air at the surface prevented AGW energy from being influential. This extreme weather event was not ACC.
VI. Evolution of Superstorm Sandy
October 21, 2012-Sandy is developing south of Hispaniola while a cold front moves east off North America. Cool dry air behind the cold front and several fronts to follow, will convince National Hurricane Center(NHC) forecasters that Sandy will be short lived as a tropical cyclone. NHC Discussion 1 announces TD 18 at 11 A.M. Monday October 22, 2012. It is predicted to be post-tropical or extratropical in five days.
October 23, 2012-Surface winds, coming off the U.S. East Coast at temperatures near 50 degrees F., are moving south and west cooling Western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in Sandy's predicted path. Sandy is south of Jamaica at this time.
October 24, 2012-Deep convection almost completely encircles the center of Tropical Storm Sandy. It is expected to become a hurricane in 24 hours (NHC Discussion 8). Warm air and moisture, transported from the south and east by wide convective rain bands, reinforce Sandy's eyewall clouds resulting in a high altitude outflow plume northeast of the center. Cool dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and in the western Atlantic Ocean have cut off moisture north and west of Sandy's center.
October 25, 2012-There is nothing weird about Sandy. The laws of physics accurately predicted Sandy's transformation to an extra tropical super storm and landfall five days in advance. The U.S. Navy's operational global atmospheric prediction system (NOGAPS) and two European global primitive equation models, forecast that Sandy would proceed northeast, then turn northwest to landfall over the DELMARVA peninsula on Monday night (NHC Discussion 12). Intensification and expansion of Sandy's wind field was also predicted.
The cold front draped over Sandy is becoming a warm front interacting with Sandy's outflow plume.
October 26, 2012-Cool dry air behind the earlier cold front has cut off Sandy's supply of warm air and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Convection, reinforced by warm Gulf Stream waters, is confined near Sandy's center. The high altitude exhaust plume is thinning toward the north and east. A cold front moving through the Mississippi Valley will soon bring more cold air to interact with Sandy.
October 26, 2012-Cool dry surface winds behind the earlier cold front are severing Sandy's ties with warm moist Caribbean air to the south. Sandy appears to be surrounded by a cold-core cyclone.
October 27, 2012-Sandy is being transformed from tropical to extratropical. Eyewall clouds have collapsed. A small tropical convection center sends a weak exhaust plume north.
Cold dry air is plunging, over remnants of the new cold front stalled in the Tennessee Valley, into Sandy's cyclonic circulation.
October 27, 2012-Cold dry air off the Continental U.S. completely surrounds Sandy at the surface and aloft. Sandy's cyclonic wind circulation is expanding.
October 27, 2012-Water vapor imagery shows a tongue of very cold dry air enveloping Sandy's weak convection center.
A peculiar upper level convective cloud deck southwest of Sandy's center is flowing north opposite to Sandy's surface circulation. Upper level winds forcing this convection can be seen in the next cloud motion wind field image.
October 27, 2012-A tongue of extremely cold air south of Florida has forced the jet stream to double back on itself over South Florida. Strong convection over the Southeast States is formed under divergent jet stream winds on the west flank of the extreme cold tongue or trough.
Cold air at high altitude completely envelopes Sandy's center. For all practical purposes Sandy is extratropical with a very tiny tropical convection center.
October 28, 2012-Sandy is becoming a meteorological bomb or superstorm. Its surface pressure is beginning to fall rapidly. Accordingly its winds are intensifying and its circulation continues to expand. Bombs form when a jet stream doubles back on itself causing strong diverging winds at high altitude and strong converging winds near the surface. Bombs frequent mid-latitude oceans during fall and winter.
October 28, 2012-Sandy is completely cut off from moisture to the south by extremely dry winds at mid- and high-levels.
October 28, 2012-Surface winds off the land are dry too. Sandy is now under diverging winds at the apex of the jet stream turning from west to east.
October 29, 2012-Sandy is a bomb moving rapidly west to landfall near Atlantic City in about five hours. It has become tightly wound with very strong east to southeast winds pummeling the coastlines of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and New England. Structures on barrier islands, beaches and flood plains are especially hard hit with wind gusts over 90 mph and storm surge over 14 feet.
October 29, 2012-As Sandy approaches landfall its primary energy source is high altitude diverging winds due to an extreme temperature contrast between cold air to the south and warm air to the north. This topsy-turvy temperature distribution in the upper atmosphere is definitely not associated with AGW/ACC.
October 29, 2012-Strongly divergent high altitude southeasterly winds over Sandy's center are responsible for its rapidly falling central pressure and rapidly intensifying winds.
Surface winds are still relatively dry flowing off the land south and west of Sandy's center. AGW/ACC is not remotely influencing Sandy's devastation. That is a result of wall to wall houses built on beaches, barrier islands and flood plains. This will happen again thanks to taxpayer $billions being squandered to rebuild.
October 29, 2012-Although flooding was extensive due to storm surge, Sandy did not cause massive flooding due to heavy rainfall. Throughout its extratropical life cycle, Sandy lacked access to moisture and moved rapidly inland where moisture was less available. Heavy snowfall in West Virginia resulted from convective instability as the storm center moved west and north.
October 30, 2012-After Sandy moved ashore, strong southeasterly winds turned into strong southerly winds causing a mountain of water, from long fetch swell, piled up along the New Jersey shoreline to move north into Staten Island, lower Manhattan and Long Island. This perfect storm devastation has been predicted for many years. Thanks to accurate numerical weather predictions and National Hurricane Center warnings, loss of life was small in proportion to the extremely high population density along the coast.
IX. Metamorphosis of NEMO*
President Obama warned against the threat of manmade climate change causing more powerful storms. NEMO, the powerful nor'easter that set snowfall records in New England on February 28, 2013, like Sandy, could not be blamed on AGW. Nemo originated as two nascent cyclones and fronts from Siberia and China. Metamorphosis of the cyclones and fronts while crossing the North Pacific Ocean and the U.S. was stunning for its precise choreography during the eleven day trip. Intelligent planning and control is evident.
*Named by the Weather Channel
January 28, 2013-NEMO, the nor'easter that plowed into New England on February 08, 2013, is shown here in its infancy, as two cold pockets. One is east of Honshu, the other is two days behind, in China. The cloud masses in advance of cold pockets are formed by high altitude diverging winds forcing air to rise to its condensation level and above.
January 30, 2013-Two days later, the cyclonic spin that will power Nemo's southern storm is over the dateline. The northern storm is over Honshu. The storm that followed Nemo with snow over the northern Plains, Midwest, New England and a tornado in Hattiesburg, Mississippi is forming, in China.
February 01, 2013-Nemo's two infant storms are over the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The southern storm is represented by the powerful cyclone north of Hawaii with two trailing fronts. The northern storm is contained in the cyclone and front over the dateline. The problem is how to place these two systems into position in order to rendezvous at precisely the right location and time to become a nor'easter. The amazing tortuous solution suggests intelligent control.
February 02, 2013-The second front has nearly caught up to the first. Winds on the warm side of each front turn clockwise and decelerate. This convergence causes air to sink and become heated by compression. Clouds on the warm side of the front evaporate in the warm, dry air. Pressure increases resulting in surface winds turning clockwise. This heat dome can be recognized by the absence of clouds between the front and Hawaii. Cold air, recognized as tiny convective clouds, is being squeezed between the two fronts. The first front is temporarily rejuvenated by the increasing temperature contrast across the front.
A new cold pocket has formed in the fast moving cold air behind the second front.
February 02, 2013-A cold core cyclone formed in the cold air between the two fronts. Wind speeds are increasing as the heat dome squeezes against the new cyclone.
The jet stream, powered by thermal winds proportional to the mid-level temperature contrast across the second front, follows the front until it terminates, then decelerates and veers south until turning north over remains of the first front. Meanwhile the heat dome, ahead of the second front, is wiping out the temperature contrast across the first front.
February 02, 2013-Having served its purpose by depositing a cyclone east of Hawaii, the first front is destroyed by the heat dome ahead of the second front. The cold pocket is overtaking the second front.
February 03, 2013-Cyclogenesis is occurring as the cold pocket merges with the second front.
The cyclone deposited by the first front east of Hawaii is raising a convective cloud deck under diverging winds and upward vertical motion. Evaporation to feed the convection cools the ocean surface where it might be mistaken for La Nina.
February 5, 2013-The new cyclone is approaching Vancouver Island. A weak southern cyclone is approaching Baja California. Two precisely timed and intricately located upper level cyclones destined to become a fierce Nor'easter are perfectly positioned for entry to North America.
February 06, 2013-The two cyclones are proceeding to their ultimate destination off Cape Cod, MA. They are separated by the second front. Cyclone number one is being forced to remain on the Gulf Coast by the heat dome south of the front.
February 08, 2013-The front is gone. The two storms are flying in formation.
February 8, 2013 (1:15 PM EST)-The storms are merging.
February 08, 2013 (4 PM EST)-Cold air out of Canada has cut off the storms from warm moist air over the West Atlantic Ocean. AGW cannot be blamed for the Nor'easter's intensity.
February 08, 2013 (7:45 PM EST)-NEMO lives. Blizzard conditions are reported from eastern Pennsylvania to Maine. The National Weather Service did a spectacular job. NEMO was predicted nearly a week in advance. The nor'easter of 1978 was predicted by the new state of the science Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) only three days in advance. The National Meteorological Center computer system was down at that time.
February 09, 2013 (1 AM EST)-Nemo departs Cape Cod. Blizzards continue in New York and New England.
February 10, 2013 (2 PM CST)-The University of Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg, MS will be severely damaged by an EF4 tornado in three hours. Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota are in a blizzard. This is the storm that departed China, behind the Nemo cold pockets, ten days ago.
February 10, 2013 (2 PM CST)-Supercells are approaching Hattiesburg, MS.
VII. Chemtrails Poison Americans in December 2012.
December 10, 2012-Chemtrail sprays of toxic chemicals and metals are evident as cloud tracks over the North Pacific Ocean west of California and the Pacific Northwest.
December 11, 2012-A cold front is distributing the toxic metals and chemicals over Washington and Oregon.
December 12, 2012-Toxic metals and chemicals have reached California and are being spread eastward. (See www.climatechangescam.com for additional examples of chemtrails poisoning Americans in 2012).
Geoengineering experiments presently conducted by the U.S. government to control AGW and ACC are insane (www.climatechangescam.com). These projects are unsafe. They must be stopped before Earth is irreparably damaged. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It is necessary for all life on Earth. Toxic chemicals and materials, sprayed into the atmosphere to control AGW/ACC are the real danger to life on Earth.
To be Continued